United States

Humanitarian Crisis
 by Chris Ynclan Jr

The Humanitarian Crisis in Ukraine

When Russia invaded Ukraine this past February, there were a number of articles surrounding the logistics and numbers concerning the war. The most prominent angle which outside observers have viewed the conflict is through a tactical and logistical lens. However, the humanitarian aspect of the Russo-Ukrainian War has taken a secondary facet behind the backdrop of a great-power competition. Granted, it is important for policymakers to understand the state of the conflict to best support the Ukrainian’s struggle to retain their sovereignty. However, policymakers must also comprehend the scale of the human security and humanitarian crisis facing Ukrainian civilians.

Human Security Issues for Those in Ukraine

When Russia amassed troops along their border, many Ukrainians did not believe that such a move would coincide with a full-blown Russian invasion. When the eventual invasion did come, they were caught off guard due to the assumption that it was merely the latest saber-rattling by Russia to force the West to address their security concerns.

During the initial days of Russian offensive operations, the majority of targets were Ukrainian military installations throughout the country and Ukrainians residing in urban cores such as Kyiv were able to find refuge in the metro systems.

As Russia’s invasion has progressed, Russia has become increasingly mired due to logistical woes and coordinated Ukrainian resistance. Amid President Putin’s growing frustration with Russia’s military command as well as Russian intelligence officials, there has been a pivot of military strategy toward overwhelming and indiscriminate firepower. This worrying new phase in the war can be seen in Russia’s latest assault on Lviv which had been a reprieve for those who had been displaced by the conflict.

Further compounding the critical human security issues faced by the civilian population has been the deployment of mercenaries to Ukraine. The most notable PMCs to have reportedly joined the invasion has been the infamous Wagner Group. The group has been a key part of Russia’s realpolitik which has enabled its autocratic allies to stay in power through employing whatever means it deems necessary to quell dissent.

Furthermore, there is the increasing prospect of Syrian mercenaries being sent inside Ukraine. The presence of these mercenaries poses the risk of subjecting Ukrainian civilians to some of the worst human rights abuses since the Syrian Civil War, where the mercenaries honed their skills upon the Syrian populace.

Additionally, the quality of life for the average Ukrainian has decreased greatly since the invasion began. Infrastructure critical to the well-being of Ukrainians, such as clean water, have been ravaged by the fighting. The advancing Russians have also destroyed institutions which are vital to their health irrespective of long held international norms.

With an intensification of the conflict imminent, it is likely that Ukraine’s plight will grow more desperate without the intervention of outside groups to replace the lost institutions. Without such an effort, the conflict in Ukraine is likely to deteriorate into one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.

The Nations Taking In Ukrainian Refugees

While the world has been galvanized by the difficult circumstances which Ukrainians find themselves in, the scale of the human migration has been difficult to comprehend for Western policymakers, as they have opened their borders to meet the immediate needs of the refugees. According to data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), over three million Ukrainians have fled the conflict to seek protection in neighboring states.

The largest proportion of refugees have gone to Poland with more than a million refugees reported as fleeing toward Warsaw and other Polish towns. Although Poland has provided an outpouring of support to the refugee population, the support that they are able to impart is becoming increasingly strained due to the constant flow of displaced Ukrainians, especially as Russia intensifies its operations in the country.

Another nation which is feeling the strain of the Ukrainian refugee crisis is neighboring Moldova. Granted, there are other bordering nations such as Hungary which have taken in a considerable amount of refugees. Moldova however, has received the highest amount of fleeing Ukrainians per unit of population. In a bid to alleviate its logistical woes, Moldova has called upon the United States to lend humanitarian assistance. All of this comes as the country declared a state of emergency in light of Russia’s invasion of its neighbor.

Policy Options for Western States

Given the current circumstances which fleeing Ukrainians face, it is clear that a sustained multilateral response is required. As the most immediate entity with the capacity to ease the stress faced by the nations of Eastern and Central Europe, the European Union (EU) can orchestrate a more equitable resettlement of refugees.

The EU may be able to provide shelter to those displaced from the conflict, but they must also coordinate with NGOs which have the capacity to provide for other immediate needs. They must also provide bureaucratic support to help Ukrainians stay within their borders through visas and provide state-sponsored schemes to help refugees find employment, similar to how as Poland has done.

The United States has a wide variety of mechanisms which it can implement to aid in relieving the current humanitarian crisis caused by the Russo-Ukraine War. Through its influence within the international system, the United States should advocate for humanitarian corridors leading into Ukraine’s neighboring states where there is an effective deterrence for Russia not to escalate the conflict.

On the humanitarian front, the United States can revive the refugee resettlement program and other immigration reform efforts to better accommodate the needs of the Ukrainians. This would help relieve the humanitarian duress on states like Moldova and Poland are facing.

A Defining Moment for the West

For many decades, integral parts of the West’s economic and security architecture had been taken for granted. Challenges to these institutions came when the West failed to coordinate during previous humanitarian crises, such as the Syrian Civil War. A lack of coordination gave way to a wave of right-wing populism which provided a critical threat to the decades of agreements which came to form the framework of the EU. The effective management of this humanitarian crisis is not only imperative for the values which we hold dear but also for the morale of the Ukrainians fighting for their sovereignty.

 

Christopher Ynclan Jr., Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

in Rise to Peace blog / Russia / Ukraine 0 comments
Ukraine
 by Rise to Peace

Ukraine is Fearful of a Possible Attack: Emergency Call for Help

There is an urgent call for help in Ukraine as it has been under the constant threat of a possible attack.  Generally, too many unresolved issues have become highly complicated through the years. Currently, Russia is looming along the Ukrainian border, creating speculation of an imminent attack. Numerous terrorist threats have been made and, unfortunately, could not be dismantled or somehow settled. It appears terrorist threats are steadily increasing in Ukraine.

Ukraine’s Vulnerability Against Russia

Lately, Ukraine and its Western allies have watched Russia purposefully assemble forces in excess of 100,000 men on the border. In spite of the fact that he professes to have no expectation of attacking, President Vladimir Putin is tactically innovative.

Ultimately, President Putin is trying to prevent Ukraine from joining both NATO and the E.U. by displaying Russia’s power and strongarming the world to comply with his demands. One of President Putin’s strategies is to create tension between the U.S., its allies, and international organizations.  Also, Russia is attempting to undermine the U.S. and President Biden by highlighting the recent fallout of events in Afghanistan. Additionally, President Putin hopes to impress Chinese President Xi Jinping through his display of force.

Ultimately, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine did not begin overnight. Russia fears that Ukraine’s acceptance into NATO would undermine its political and cultural dominance in the region, and also belittle its power and authority in Ukraine.  Additionally, Russia fears that ethnic conflicts may arise once Ukraine joins NATO, resulting in harmful practices against the Russian-minority population in Ukraine.

The Upsurge of The Terrorist Excursion

Several attacks have aimed their sites on Ukrainian targets, resulting in the Ukrainian government’s recent announcement that it has impeded several premeditated assaults within its borders, such as a bombing in Kyiv. Currently, attacks have been focused against property, however, some fatalities have been reported.

While attacks have currently been aimed at Ukrainian targets, this could change in the future incidents focusing against differing targets.

In January, the Biden organization deduced that Russia was secretively planning assaults against its own rebel partners in eastern Ukraine. “The U.S. has information that indicates Russia prepositioned a group of operatives to conduct a false-flag operation in eastern Ukraine,” an authority told CNN. “The operatives are trained in urban warfare and in using explosives to carry out acts of sabotage against Russia’s own proxy forces,” an official told CNN.

Outcomes And Future Advice

In 2022, Russia has multiple types of attacks to choose from in which they have achieved success in the past.  One such tactic Russia could use is a raid, however this would require extensive manpower. Some experts predict that for Russia to conduct a successful raid, they would require at least 175,000 troops.

However, if Russia chooses to conduct a raid, they will need to consider the cost of other resources, besides just manpower. This attack style would require a significant number of guns, surface-to-surface missiles, and air strikes against both Ukrainian personnel and equipment, such as maritime vessels. For Ukraine to handle this mounting and tentative Russian threat, it is imperative they receive assistance from foreign allies to deter a potential ambush.

While Russia is well equipped for a physical confrontation with Ukraine, they may also be planning a cyberattack, similar to their attacks in 2014, possibly targeting Ukraine’s weapons, communications, and electric systems.

Ukraine is unquestionably the center of attention at the moment, as there is a strong possibility of an attack from Russia. There have been numerous terrorist threats and now more than ever lurks the danger for the entire country. The U.S. should be prepared to assist in the event that Russia does instigate an attack against Ukraine.

 

Katerina Rebecca Paraskeva, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

in Rise to Peace blog / Russia / Ukraine 0 comments
Capitol
 by Rise to Peace

One Year After January 6: Who Attacked the Capitol?

Just over one year ago, Americans across the nation watched in stunned disbelief as one of the most powerful and sacred symbols of their democracy was attacked by a seething mob of their fellow country men and women. Through their televisions, laptops, and mobile devices they witnessed the furious crowd tear through barricades and police lines, smashing windows, breaking doors, and invading the Senate floor. They watched as armed guards drew their weapons to defend the House Chamber, as rioters erected gallows at the front of the building, and the incensed mob chanted for the execution of elected officials.

For many Americans, the Capitol riot represented the violent intrusion of domestic extremism into mainstream politics. After the September 11 attacks, the United States’ political leaders and national security establishment swore to defend the country from violent extremists who would do it harm. They launched a two-decades-long campaign to combat global jihadist terrorism, pouring trillions of dollars into defense spending, engaging in counter-terrorism missions across 80 countries, and authorizing the creation of an entirely new agency dedicated to homeland security.

Given this extraordinary focus on combating global jihadist terrorism, it is perhaps unsurprising that the rapid expansion of domestic right-wing extremism was missed. Today, intelligence reports warn that the most lethal threat to American security comes from the country’s own citizens. This threat now outstrips that posed from U.S.-based jihadists; a recent report by the New America thinktank in Washington D.C. concluded that in the two decades since September 11, far-right extremists have killed more people on American soil than domestic Islamist extremists.

Who Stormed the Capitol?

January 6 represented the eruption of this domestic security threat onto the mainstage of American culture and political life. As Americans tried to make sense of how 2,500 of their fellow citizens could storm the Capitol, people quickly jumped to conclusions as to who organized the attack. The various flags, banners, and symbols displayed throughout the crowd led many to the assumption that the riot was largely orchestrated by far-right extremist groups.

However, whilst these groups were certainly present throughout the attack, and likely played a pivotal role in its incitement, analyses have revealed that the vast majority of those involved in the storming were normal, everyday Trump supporters. This reality suggests a different and possibly much more menacing threat than that posed by far-right groups alone; indeed far-right extremists fall into categories familiar to law enforcement, who have established frameworks for addressing the threat they pose. The riotous storming of the Capitol represents the emergence of a new violent mass movement wherein average Trump supporters, with no obvious ties to the far-right, unite with extremists to forcibly enact their political goals.

Research conducted by the Chicago Project on Security and Threats concluded that the overwhelming motivation for the Capitol attack was President Trump’s injunction to his supporters that they prevent Congress from certifying Joe Biden as the winner of the presidential election. The attack, according to the authors of the research, was “not merely an exercise in vandalism or trespassing amid a disorderly protest that had spiraled out of control”, it was “unmistakably an act of political violence.”

Moreover, whilst right-wing extremists belonging to militia-like groups received substantial mainstream news coverage, 89% of those arrested in relation to the attack had no affiliation with any known militant organization. Indeed, the demographic profile of the Capitol rioters significantly diverges from the typical right-wing extremist. Whereas 26% of far-right extremists arrested between 2015 and 2020 belonged to a white-nationalist gang, this was true for just 1% of those arrested in relation to January 6. Those who marched on the Capitol were significantly older and wealthier than the typical far-right actor, 40% were business owners or held white-collar jobs. They worked as CEOs, accountants, doctors, lawyers, and IT specialists, indeed less than 1 in 10 were unemployed.

Mainstreaming Right-Wing Extremism

According to Cythia Miller-Idriss, the director of the Polarization and Extremist Research and Innovation Lab at the American University, the Capitol riot represents the mainstreaming of right-wing extremism. “The majority of the rioters were hitherto ordinary Americans who had only recently embraced radical ideas. Their pathways to political violence did not involve a clearly defined ideology or an affiliation with particular groups but instead were shaped by a propaganda campaign that engulfed the full spectrum of right-wing politics.”

This kind of extremism is challenging for security experts and counter-terrorism officials. Violent mass movements are often unorganized and difficult to categorize, indeed the coalition of extremists on display during the Capitol attack included an array of strange bedfellows. According to Miller-Idress, the January 6 mob included not just traditional far-right extremists, pro-Trump activists, and QAnon conspiracy theorists, but also “‘wellness’ advocates opposed to vaccines, libertarians opposed to mask mandates, gun-rights proponents protesting perceiving threats to the Second Amendment, and ‘accelerationists’ seeking the violent collapse of political, economic, and social systems.”

Adapting to the Threat

In the United States, domestic extremist groups were once motivated by relatively coherent ideological beliefs. Security, intelligence, and law enforcement officials developed strategies, frameworks, and fields of expertise to counter these groups. However, these specialized approaches do not apply to the kind of violent mass movement embodied at the Capitol riot.

“Tactics such as monitoring, surveillance, and infiltration are harder to apply in an environment that is more spontaneous, fragmented, and characterized by rapid evolution and surprising coalitions” says Miller-Idress. “Simply put, the tools that authorities use to combat extremists become less useful when the line between the fringe and the center starts to blur. The federal government urgently needs to adapt to this new reality. Extremism has gone mainstream; so must the interventions needed to address it.”

Counter-extremism efforts designed to tackle threats from the fringe are no longer viable. The threat now comes from the mainstream and counter-terrorism strategies must be adapted accordingly. The U.S. needs to stop conceptualizing the risk of political violence as belonging exclusively to the domain of national security. It must adopt a broadscale response focused on addressing the various grievances and vulnerabilities that fuel extremist ideology. The U.S. has the ability to prevent this extremism, to rebuild public trust, and to restore a sense of civic unity. But to do so, it must first accept its new reality.

 

Oliver Alexander Crisp, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

in Domestic Terrorism / Rise to Peace blog 0 comments
Haiti
 by Rise to Peace

Kidnappings in Haiti Terrorize the Nation

In recent weeks, two collective kidnappings have been registered in Haiti. After the death of President Jovenel Moïse, Haiti has suffered a wave of crimes and kidnappings throughout the country, which have severely affected the local population.

The situation in Haiti is critical. Despite the fact that two hostages were released a few days ago, insecurity terrorizes the country and the Central American region.

Background

Haiti is currently recovering from the political crisis generated by the assassination of its president, Jovenel Moïse, and from an earthquake in August. In addition, the Haitian State does not have the capacity to effectively address these problems and the increased violence. In fact, the Haitian Armed Forces have not been able to control the territory and prevent the proliferation of armed gangs.

The power of the Haitian criminal gangs can be evidenced in situations such as the blocking of the country’s fuel supply. After Moïse’s death, gangs such as G9 and Family blocked Terminal Varreux, the country’s largest oil terminal. This blockade restricted access to fuel across the country to destabilize the government, impact the nation’s electricity grid, and threaten citizens’ lives and wellbeing. The gangs are so powerful that the blockade only ended due to a truce between the G9 and Family and the local government.

Overall, security and public order in Haiti are worrisome. An estimated 165 gang factions operate in Haiti’s capital, Port-au-Prince, and these gangs have carried out numerous kidnappings in 2021 alone.

The Kidnappings

The first mass kidnapping occurred on October 16th, when 17 members (12 adults and five children) of a U.S.-based missionary group were kidnapped by the 400 Mawozo gang, which controls the Croix-des-Bouquets area east of Port-au-Prince. According to authorities, the missionaries were kidnapped when en route to visit an orphanage and carry out humanitarian aid. The gang has demanded a $17 million ransom, $1 million per hostage.

In addition, on November 21st 2 of the 17 kidnapped missionaries were released. However, only after FBI agents, Haitian authorities, and the anti-kidnapping unit of the national police negotiated with the kidnappers for more than one month.

The second mass kidnapping occurred on November 23rd, when an armed gang kidnapped 15 passengers from a bus in northwestern Haiti. Authorities have indicated that the gang is asking for a large sum of money to release the hostages, although the exact ransom amount remains unknown.

As of late, the number of kidnappings in Haiti has increased exponentially. So far in 2021, nearly 800 kidnappings have been reported in Haiti. In fact, The Center for Analysis and Research in Human Rights (CARDH) notes that at least 782 kidnappings were reported this year, up until October 16th, compared to 796 cases in all of 2020, without taking into account unregistered cases.

What’s Next for Haiti?

Due to the weak presence and lack of territorial control by the Haitian State, the power of the gangs, the criminal governance in certain areas of the country, the increased crime rate, the difficult economic climate, and mounting social tensions, crimes, such as mass kidnappings, are likely to persist.

Public order and security will only stabilize once security forces, such as the Haitian National Police, are reinforced and improved, allowing them to effectively confront the gangs and regain control of the country. Furthermore, after the death of President Moïse, political power needs to be reorganized to effectively address the ongoing security challenges.

For this reason, the country has experienced events such as the new Haitian cabinet, which will be made up of members of the opposition, the impending delivery of 19 police vehicles and protective equipment to the Haitian police by the United States, and more actions by the armed forces to restore order. These planned actions and events are expected to reduce violent crimes, such as kidnappings, and improve security conditions, throughout Haiti.

 

Daniel Felipe Ruiz Rozo, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

in Latin America / Rise to Peace blog 0 comments
 by Ahmad Mohibi

Daesh Within the DMV? Assesing the ISIS-K Threat in Northern Virginia

Bereft of the territory which they conquered at their height, ISIS seeks to restore their ability to instill fear in those who don’t share their fringe ideology. Recent operations conducted by the group such as their attack on the Kabul airport are congruent with this aim. With their fervent desire to be seen once again as the preeminent jihadist group, officials within the United States have sounded the alarm over potential lone-wolf attacks within Northern Virginia. These warnings from the law enforcement community come at a time where ISIS has increased its online activity.

At the height of their power in 2015, ISIS shocked the world with how swift they were able to capture large swaths of territory within the Levant by exploiting political instability. Through this success, they were able to create a global network of affiliates like ISIS-K and inspire lone-wolf attacks throughout the world. The most infamous of these attacks was the 2015 Paris attacks which were carried out by radicalized European-raised nationals. The Paris attacks ultimately took the lives of 130 people with injuries sustained by many more.

The attacks also provided the impetus for a wide coalition of nations with differing interests to combat the group and its affiliates. Air support tied to Operation Inherent Resolve proved critical in aiding regional forces in reducing the amount of territory held by ISIS. As a result of these multilateral efforts, ISIS had lost almost all of its territory by 2017. Furthermore, Operation Inherent Resolve proved effective at dismantling the leadership of ISIS.

As ISIS lost territory in the Levant, they began to direct resources toward ISIS-K to bolster their presence within Central Asia. ISIS-K has also received hardened veterans as well as foreign fighters dedicated to furthering the aims of the organization. The ultimate goal of the affiliate is the establishment of a Caliphate within the region in which they operate. They have also been known to advocate for attacks against the West.

Moreover, the withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan has proved to be beneficial for ISIS-K. The withdrawal allowed for many of their members to be released from prison who could aid in their pursuit of a Caliphate. In addition, the lack of military pressure by the United States allows them ample space to revive an operational capacity similar to what they had in the Levant. To achieve this they will likely seek to radicalize foreigners to carry out lone-wolf attacks. Successful attacks would bring them prestige for recruitment while they direct their efforts to establish their Caliphate. Furthermore, by occupying Afghanistan they lay claim to a heritage of Islamist groups of the past who have successfully resisted great powers such as the Soviet Union and the United States. With this in mind, ISIS-K will likely attract foreign fighters using this as a tool for recruitment.

The chaos caused by the withdrawal has caused a multitude of refugees who sought asylum to avoid living under Taliban rule. With the primary focus of the United States being to safely evacuate Americans out of the country, the disarray allowed for a lack of vetting of those seeking to exit Afghanistan. According to those on the ground, there could have been the possibility of ISIS-K members entering the United States with asylum seekers. The prospect of this proves a challenge to our national security.

To meet the challenges presented by ISIS-K the United States must be cognizant of the threats which are posed by the group. One such threat is that the group may adopt new technology in the same manner in which their predecessor did. As the technology evolved, ISIS had been able to create videos that inspired waves of attacks to be conducted in their name. Secondly, the group has entrenched itself in one of the most geographically intense terrains on the globe. As a result, the group will likely be active for years to come given the advantage which their geography affords them.

Although the chance of a successful ISIS-K attack within Northern Virginia is slim, the U.S. should take concrete steps in mitigating an attack. This can be achieved by building trust in local Muslim communities with law enforcement agencies within the DMV region. Furthermore, the U.S. could also partner with tech companies to block content from ISIS-K. They can also work with regional partners to weaken the operational capabilities of the group within Afghanistan. Finally, the United States can also set up a strict vetting regime to screen for potential extremists. By thwarting a potential attack, the political capital which the group uses to recruit and fundraise is significantly reduced.

ISIS-K represents the latest iteration of a jihadist group that has learned from their predecessors. The group also seems to be poised to experience an increase in their breadth of capabilities and foreign combatants. Without proactive action by the United States and the international community, the group could very well establish a Caliphate within Central Asia. In doing so, the group would have safe haven to orchestrate plots worldwide on those it considers its targets. While their capacity to carry out an attack on the homeland is limited now, their ability to do so only increases with time.

in Rise to Peace blog / United States 0 comments