Image Credit: Fred Lum at the Globe and Mail. A vigil held for the lives lost in the Quebec City Mosque

Profiling ‘Lone Wolves’ in Canada and the United States

The concept of ‘lone wolf terrorism’, as we understand in the contemporary, was ‘developed’ by right-wing extremists. Tom Metzger, the leader of the White Aryan Resistance, used the term ‘lone wolf’ infamously during the 1980s-1990s. Furthermore, he advocated that white supremacists should adopt a ‘lone wolf’ or ‘leaderless resistance strategy’ where the supremacists can ‘engage in criminal actions only individually or in small cells to avoid detection by law enforcement.’

Law enforcement professionals and specialised academics alike have reported that lone wolf terrorists are difficult to identify and prevent attacks for the reason that the ‘traditional’ models of profiling do not conform to that of lone wolves. There are certain patterns of behaviour and similarities between lone wolf terrorists that aid in creating a profile of the individual, however, these patterns are often identified after the horrific act is committed. In brief, lone wolf attacks are reported to be undetectable and largely unpredictable.


Examples from Canada and the United States of Lone Wolves

The purpose of this section is to draw from two separate, recent incidents of lone wolf acts of terrorisms in Canada and the United States to identify the similarities in the backgrounds and operations of the perpetrators. It must be mentioned that these incidents were chosen due to their recency in terms of occurrence and criminal prosecution.

1. Patrick Wood Crusius – 3 August 2019, Mass Shooting in El-Paso, Texas, United States
21-year-old Crusius opened fired at a Walmart store on 3 August 2019, killing 22 people in this rampage. It was reported that 19 minutes prior to the emergency call that was made, Crusius had published a ‘manifesto’ online, expressing his anti-immigrant sentiments. After his arrest, Crusius admitted to the authorities that his goal was to ‘kill as many Mexicans’ as possible.

2. Alexandre Bissonnette – 29 January 2017, Shooting in Sainte-Foy, Quebec, Canada
On 29 January 2017, the then 27-year-old Alexandre Bissonnette, entered the Quebec Islamic Cultural Centre in Sainte Foy, Quebec, Canada, and opened fired on Muslim men. Bisonnette killed six men, and has been sentenced to at least 40 years in prison. Investigations from Bissonnette’s personal computer revealed evidence of his ‘fascination with anti-immigrant alt-right and conservative commentators, and mass murder.’ Bissonnette also stated his ‘worries’ about Muslim immigration in Quebec.

Though Crusius’ and Bissonnette’s cases are merely two incidents of violence and loss of innocent lives, the similarities in their behaviours and core sentiments are to be examined. In the United States alone, it has been reported that one wolf terrorism is more lethal than organised terrorism. Individuals who are later identified as lone wolves manage to avoid arrest and do not arouse much suspicion because of their similar lifestyle as being isolated and keeping to themselves, while planning their attack alone.

Specialists report that these individuals often suffer a history of personal anguish and personal grievances, further fuelling their justifications and anger leading up to an attack. Modern online spaces, such a popular forums and chat rooms, provide a cyberspace for these individuals to spread their messages of anti-immigration sentiments and other messages of hatred. As seen in the cases of Crusius and Bissonnette, the ‘fear’ of the United States or Canada being ‘overcome’ by Mexicans or Muslims (in their case) was voiced, and was stated by the perpetrators themselves as a motivator for their attack.

As previously mentioned, the identification or prevention of an attack is rendered extremely difficult as there exists no single profile of a lone wolf. In fact, would-be perpetrators exhibit behaviours that are not uncommon to most adolescents or young adults (such as social isolation, signs of depression). Moreover, as lone wolf acts have shown to be conducted by primarily men, it would be unreasonable to expect authorities to be able to identify beyond a reasonable doubt that an individual is a lone wolf terrorist by these slim criterion.


Countering violent extremism: How is a lone wolf stopped prior to action?

Considering the foregoing, at the current stage of profiling and identification of lone wolf terrorists, it is difficult, if not impossible, to detect and halt a lone wolf terrorist attack before it happens. The reason being that lone wolves do not usually discuss their motives or ideas with others, coupled with the fact that their motivation is often only discovered tragically after an attack has happened.

However, this does not mean that there is a lack of sincere effort and measures that can be taken in the prevention of such attacks. Modern day technology plays a significant role in the dissemination of ideas and speech, therefore, there are methods in which potentially dangerous ‘hate speech’ or threats can be identified in chat rooms and reported to authorities for further investigations. It is understood that of course, this sort of monitoring is subject to certain restrictions and limitations as set out in the fundamental human rights related to privacy.

Lone wolf attacks have been reported to be rare, however, when they are carried out, they take with them many innocent lives. They are devastating and scarring to communities. The situation concerning lone wolf attacks, as it currently stands, requires further research into intervention and prevention methods, and would greatly benefit from mutual cooperation between national, international authorities and members of professional societies hailing from a variety of backgrounds.

Image Credit: Fred Lum at the Globe and Mail. A vigil held for the lives lost in the Quebec City Mosque

13 Hours of Extremism: Domestic Terrorism Across the Political Spectrum Highlights Domestic Extremism Concerns

The two perpetrators of the Dayton, Ohio and El Paso mass shootings. (L) Connor Betts (R) Patrick Crusius. Image Source: Eurweb

Between August 3-4 2019, America was horrified by multiple mass killings across the nation. Dozens were left dead and even more injured. At least one of the events is being actively treated as an act of domestic terrorism, while the other appears to be linked to extremism. Below is a summary of the events, a summary of what is known about the perpetrators, and a summary of potential links between the attacks and societal repercussions of the horrific events.

The following summaries of the incidents and individuals are based on statements made by witnesses and relevant officials.

3 August 2019

Patrick Crusius, age 21, drove upwards of ten hours from his home to a Walmart in El Paso, Texas. Crusius exited his vehicle and entered the store where he sought to identify his potential targets based on the desire to kill and hurt as many people of Hispanic descent as possible. At the time of Crusius’ pre-attack surveillance, officials stated that there were between 1,000 and 3,000 people inside the Walmart. Crusius exited the store after satisfaction with the potential number of Hispanic victims inside. Just prior to the attack, a manifesto was circulated on digital extremist forums that highlighted anti-immigrant and racist conspiracy theories. The manifesto is posted under a pseudonym, however, it has largely been linked to Crusius. Crusius then prepared for the attack in or around his vehicle in the parking lot before commencing his plan. He was taken into custody near the scene. Twenty-two people have died thus far with dozens more injured.

4 August 2019

Connor Betts, age 24, appeared to have been active on social media on 3 August 2019. Earlier in the day, on the Twitter account associated with Betts, there was a retweet that called for Joe Biden to “Hurry up and Die”. In the wake of the news breaking about the attack in El Paso, the Twitter account “liked” several tweets that pertained to the attack. On the morning of 4 August 2019, Betts approached a popular bar in Dayton, Ohio, and began to open fire with a rifle. Law Enforcement was quick to respond, killing Betts on scene, but only after Betts managed to kill at least 9 people and injure dozens more. As of this writing, no manifesto or any communication of intent of the attack has been discovered. Prior to Betts’ Twitter account being taken down, it was discovered that Betts often commented support for various left-wing movements, stating his support for Senator Elizabeth Warren and Senator Bernie Sanders. There was at least one retweet in favor of an account linked to the far-left ANTIFA extremist group.

What Do We Know About the Perpetrators?

 Patrick Crusius

Few people from Crusius’ personal life have come forward since the attack, therefore less is known about him. However, Crusius appears willing to speak with law enforcement following his arrest, and the manifesto that has been linked to him is telling. Crusius admitted to law enforcement officials that he purposefully targeted Hispanics in his attack. In the manifesto, a sociological/political theory known as “The Great Replacement Theory” is discussed, which is essentially an anti-immigrant ideology that calls for the separation of races. It has been linked to white supremacist attacks internationally and has at least a marginal following amongst white supremacist groups worldwide. Accounts have been discovered on extremist forums that are believed to belong to Crusius. A LinkedIn account believed to have belonged to Crusius shows that he had been unemployed for at least the last five months. The account, which has been taken down, stated that Crusius was largely uninterested in a career but was interested in computer software, as he stated that he spent most of his days on a computer anyway. It was not immediately clear if Crusius had any education after high school, and his economic and social life was not apparent.

Connor Betts

Multiple people have come forward who reportedly knew Betts, most painting an image of a dangerous individual. It has been reported that Betts had been suspended from high school at least once in reference to possession (and believed production) of a “hit list” and “rape list”. Betts was a musician and had at least some college education. He was a self-described “leftist” and “atheist”, but was described by peers as a loner and outcast. Multiple sources have reported that Betts had an obsession with mass shootings for some years. A female has come out and stated that she was dating Betts, but had broken up with him in May of 2019 over his concerning behavior. It is not clear if Betts was working at this time and his economic situation is unclear.

Potential Link Between the Attacks in El Paso and Dayton

As was mentioned earlier, a Twitter account linked to Betts ‘liked’ several tweets in regard to the El Paso attack, just hours before launching his own attack in Dayton. The attack in El Paso was rumored to be inspired by white supremacist ideology relatively quickly after the news broke and was subsequently confirmed as more information came out throughout the night. It is possible that Betts was inspired to launch an attack in furtherance of far-left extremism in response to the far-right attack in El Paso. That being said, it is unclear whether the attack in Dayton was pre-planned. As had been reported, Betts was obsessed with mass shootings for some time, however, his online links to the far-left cannot be ignored. His apparent following of the events in El Paso potentially link the two attacks as a form of tit-for-tat extremism between individuals on opposite sides of the political spectrum.

Online Extremism: A Domestic Issue

 Both Crusius and Betts were active, at least in part, in online communications with extremist accounts or forums. Crusius has been linked to the publication of the Manifesto as discussed above and has been connected to profiles in extremist forums on websites such as “8chan”. Betts’ link to online extremism has been less clearly defined, but on at least one occasion he was connected to an ANTIFA account and shared a message in furtherance of the group.

While it is too early in the investigation to begin making definitive judgements about the level of influence such digital extremism had on either Crusius and Betts, it is clear that there is a connection between their actions and the extremist rhetoric that they consumed.

Preliminary Recommendations

 It is too early for exact political and/or policy recommendations to be relevant. Both investigations remain active. However, as the attacks appear to be linked to the far end of both sides of the linear political spectrum, adding more rhetoric in an attempt to further politicize the event may serve to further radicalize individuals with like-minded ideas. People of influence on either side of the political spectrum should consider this when crafting their messaging to avoid further influence for extremism.

Digital extremism communications represent a real challenge for policymakers. Preventing the free exchange of ideas is fundamentally against the ideals of the United States, however, as events such as the ones discussed above demonstrate the potential dangers associated with the ideal. It is recommended, that any ‘red flag’ laws that are implemented should expressly allow for the admittance of online forum discussions in consideration of individual cases. Domestic law enforcement agencies must also develop capabilities for monitoring such forums that are linked to extremist ideologies. Intelligence-led policing must be brought to the forefront of the discussion as the leading chance for preventing domestic terrorism events.

John Patrick Wilson is the Director of the Domestic Counter-Terrorism Program at Rise to Peace with experience in law enforcement, political research, and counter-violent extremism research. 

Finding the Root Cause of Youth Extremism

Children and youth populations are the most vulnerable to radicalization and violence all around the world1. Currently, the youth population is the largest the world has ever seen, and the largest sect of this population are in war torn countries. The UN resolution 2250 defined youth as the ages 18 through 29[1]. In summer of 2016, the UN General Assembly hosted a panel discussion with various stakeholders on the drivers of youth extremism1. These various stakeholders identified high rates of unemployment as a principle driver to youth radicalization. Even before the UN resolution was passed, President Barack Obama addresses the UN and pointed to jobless youth as most susceptible to radicalization3.  This hypothesis is the dominant narrative of what is happening in the Middle East and North Africa, where youth unemployment is expected to reach 29% by 2019, which is double the global average[2]. However, the root of the problem is more complicated than just poverty and unemployment. The principle driver of extremism in young populations is rooted in experienced injustice, which is caused by poor or corrupt governance[3].

The Taliban, Al Qaeda, ISIS and so many other terrorist groups are recruiting and training younger and younger children to fight wars to the death.

In 2015, the organization Mercy Corps used focus group interviews and quantitative studies to conduct a report on youth extremism/political violence in Afghanistan, Somalia, and Columbia. The organization found that employment status has an insignificant impact on whether a young person decides to support or engage in political violence3. For example, while interviewing young men who were previously engaged in jihadist groups, Sharon Curcio, found that many of them left their comfortable lives in Gulf States, Saudi Arabia, and Western Europe to join the movement[1]. Also, according to OCED, countries like Greece and Spain have youth unemployment rates close to 50%[2], yet these countries are not leading in youth radicalization. If there was a linear relationship between unemployment and political violence, these European countries would have the highest rates of extremism from young individuals.  Radicalized groups, however, are established in states that have weak government intuitions, which is why youth radicalization is not prevalent in countries like Greece and Spain. Poverty and unemployment are often a symptom of an unstable government. Therefore, it would be inaccurate to claim poverty as the only cause of young radicalization.

Unemployment is a major issue facing youth today. The youth are frustrated by observed and experienced political corruption and unresponsive government. Why does this injustice impact the youth population more than other demographics? The answer is in the psychological development of young people and just the general search of the purpose that the adolescent population seeks. In comparison to older populations, young citizens have more energy, passion, and the capabilities to make a better life for themselves and their communities[1]. However, when all facets of society fail to provide resources to channel this energy into constructive actions, young people will search elsewhere for sources of purpose. Often times extremist groups offer education, money, shelter, and a sense of purpose their own government has failed to give them. This is why extremist groups are successful in gaining political holds in politically unstable areas.

Frequently extremist’s groups will shape their narrative around youth frustration, and their idealism that pushes them to make a difference. For example, extremist recruiters will repeatedly show videos of suffering women and children refugees and push the narrative that joining the movement would give recruits a chance to alleviate this suffering4.Unfortunately, countries with political instability have the largest youth populations, and this is often referred to the ‘youth bulge’3. Young people usually have the least political power, and inherently are persistently marginalized. Research has shown the lack of representation in government increases young person’s chance of taking up arms by three times3. Recruiters offer guns and violence to solve their problems, instead of peaceful political discourse. This peaceful discourse is not possible with a lack of government or existence of authoritarian government regimes.

Young children of the ISIS fighters in Syria

Recruitment is successful when the youth feels like their skills aren’t being utilized. These groups seemingly offer a ‘constructive’ role in society. A role where the recruits can make their voice heard, and given a noble path to salvation. This is the general message used by groups, like the Taliban, ISIS, and Boko Haram to recruit young people. Generally, the messages are narratives, which claim victory is near for the resistance, and injustice, pain, and suffering will end if one joins the cause6. Recruiters offer jobs such as teaching the Koran, distributing donation money to widows and refugees, helping Muslim comrades fight oppressors against Islam, and a chance to stop the threat to Islam4. These terrorist organizations offer an escape from constant frustration and give a young people who join a sense of identity and belonging they have been searching for3. This tactic is consistent with most extremist groups and is difficult to prevent with modern technology. Groups often use social media platforms and websites to reach younger people. Recently the Islamic State has used social media to lure young girls to join the organization as jihadist brides by portraying the organization as a big family[1]. These accounts and pages get taken down and blocked as quickly as new ones are created.

The first step to solving this problem is finding the true reasoning behind why young people join these organizations. Poverty and unemployment often are rooted in societies that are experiencing political instability or war. Commonly in this fast-paced society, people want to just look at the surface for solutions to problems. It is easy to look at an impoverished country with violence and point to poverty as the cause. The steady increase of youth radicalization is a complex issue that has no simple solution. Poverty alone does not lead someone to join a terrorist organization that uses suicide bombers to push an extreme political agenda. In order to fight extremism, nations need to focus on educating and empowering youth in these unstable areas. They should give them an outlet to express their frustration in a peaceful way. This is easier said than done, but at Rise to Peace we hope to eradicate youth radicalization because everyone should have a say in his or her future choices and to not be lured by basic needs.

Sources:

[1] United Nations. (2015). Security Council, Unanimously Adopting Resolution 2250 (2015), Urges Member States to Increase Representation of Youth in Decision-Making at All Levels. Retrieved from http://www.un.org/press/en/2015/sc12149.doc.htm

[2] Cronin, S. (2014). Middle East youth jobs crisis “lures recruits to extremism”. The National. Retrieved from http://www.thenational.ae/business/economy/middle-east-youth-jobs-crisis-lures-recruits-to-extremism

[3] Mercy Corps. (2015). Youth & Consequences: Unemployment, Injustice and Violence. Retrieved from https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/youth-consequences-unemployment-injustice-and-violence

[4] Curcio, S. (2005). The Dark Side of Jihad: How Young Men Detained at Guantanamo Assess Their Experience. RAND National Security Research Division. Retrieved from http://www.rand.org/pubs/working_papers/WR354.html

[5] Unemployment – Youth unemployment rate – OECD Data. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://data.oecd.org/unemp/youth-unemployment-rate.htm

[6] Ahmad, B. (2015). Afghan Youth and Extremists. United States Institute for Peace.  Retrieved from https://www.usip.org/publications/2015/08/afghan-youth-and-extremists

[7] Harvey, D. (2015). How Islamic State extremist use social media to recruit. BBC. Retrieved from http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/31574846/how-islamic-state-extremists-use-social-media-to-recruit