Russia

Ukraine
 by Rise to Peace

How the U.S. is Assisting Ukraine Against Russia’s Attacks

Russian-Ukrainian tensions have persisted since February 2014 and have now escalated to war. Currently, U.S. troops located in Europe are on high alert as Russia moves further into Ukraine. Since the first day of attacks, Russian missiles have bombarded Ukrainian cities and military sites.

While attacks erupted in Kyiv, crowds of people flocked into trains and fled in their cars. President Biden has issued new sanctions towards Russia stating that President Putin has imposed this war and has set a dangerous precedent that nations can take what they want by force.

U.S Troops and NATO’s Mission

U.S. troops have several missions, but the primary message sent to Russia is to not attack NATO and their members, particularly those abutting Russia’s eastern border.  Some NATO members stated that they have a bad history with Russia and wanted reassurances.

The U.S. and other members of NATO have sent forces, troops, helicopters and equipment to the Baltics, Poland, Romania, and many other eastern European members of the NATO alliance.

Some U.S. troops in Poland may help with the refugees migrating from Ukraine into Poland. Recently, NATO had an urgent meeting to organize forces in eastern Europe to prevent Russia from trying to move beyond Ukraine. There is also an appeal from the Baltics’ government to help arm Ukrainian forces so they can defend themselves.

President Biden’s Decision

President Biden concluded that the U.S. is not going to engage in war with Russia or place military troops on the ground in Ukraine. Ukraine is in a very challenging situation, given that their military is smaller than Russia’s and that currently the U.S. and NATO members are not planning on sending military forces to assist.

Ultimately, the conflict has persisted and continues to escalate. However, it is possible that Ukraine could efficiently combat Russia, depending on where Russia deploys military troops and how much territory it attempts to control. Currently, it is unclear if Russia could successfully occupy or control large amounts of the Ukrainian population and territory without significant retaliation.

The Impact of Russia’s Invasion

One of the largest attacks by Russia thus far has left at least nine people dead and dozens of children injured after a Ukrainian school was destroyed. Missile fragments left at the scene of the attack left a clear mark that Russia was behind the senseless attack.  Even worse, after further analysis it was discovered that the attack was actually the result of a cluster munition, which is a banned weapon by 110 countries.

Russian forces have intentionally targeted civilians all the while negotiating peace talks. Ultimately, this conflict is leaving Ukraine on the verge of a significant humanitarian crisis.

The Ukrainian Military

The Ukrainian Army and Air Force have put up a strong resistance and continue to slow down Russia’s advances. The U.S. has indicated that the Russian government is growing increasingly frustrated by their lack of progress.  The Ukrainian military has demonstrated that it will not backdown without a fight and can be effective against Russian troops.

Ultimately, Ukrainians have demonstrated their courage by calling up their military reserves and citizens volunteering to take up arms in the fight against Russia. Ukrainian citizens have displayed a unified and brave front as they fervently defend their homeland.

 

Mildred Miranda, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

in Rise to Peace blog / Russia / Ukraine / United States 0 comments
Putin
 by Rise to Peace

President Putin’s Tsarist Imperial Nationalism

The worst-case scenario is unfolding, a full-scale air and land attack from multiple directions is striking Ukraine, and the attacks have already killed over 40 soldiers and 10 civilians. The Russian Federation, led by President Putin, has instigated a a war of aggression to showcase unnecessary hegemony over a neighbor in an attempt to gain the world’s attention, and Belarus has shown support towards Russia’s actions.

The aim of this war, as stated officially by Russia, is to overthrow the Ukrainian government and carry out an ideological cleansing of Ukraine. Russia’s actions seem to emulate the actions of the Taliban during their annexation of Afghanistan. Ultimately, this conflict between Russia and Ukraine has spurred global actions and could significantly escalate if the threat of nuclear power increases.

As per Russia’s strategy, they first launched strikes on Ukraine’s military infrastructure and border guard units, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Then, Ukrainian forces stated that Russian military vehicles had crossed the border near Kharkiv in the north, Luhansk in the east, Russian-annexed Crimea in the south and from Belarus. Belarus’s authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko said his country’s military were not involved but could be if needed.

Russian tanks were later seen on the outskirts of Kharkiv, a city of 1.4 million people. Additionally, Russian forces reportedly landed by sea at Ukraine’s major port cities of Odesa on the Black Sea and Mariupol on the internal Sea of Azov.

The casualties are the latest result after a series of fast-paced advancements that began when Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a military operation in Ukraine in the early hours of Thursday, February 24th. Following President Putin’s invasion order, explosions were reported in several areas of Ukraine and air sirens went off in Kyiv, indicating that the capital city is under attack.

Ukraine’s National Emergency

The first blasts rang out just minutes after President Putin gave a televised speech Wednesday evening stating that he was authorizing military action. President Putin warned other countries that if they tried to intervene, they would face a Russian response “so severe that no foreign nations have ever experienced it before.”

Ukrainian officials reported that cruise or ballistic missiles targeted military control centres in the area of the capital, Kyiv. Russian forces also broke through the state border of the Kiev region, according to a post on Telegram from Ukraine’s Ministry of the Interior.

Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that the country has severed diplomatic relations with Russia after Moscow launched an all-out invasion of Ukraine by land, air and sea on Thursday, the biggest attack by one state against another in Europe since World War II.

President Zelensky has declared martial law in Ukraine and the Ukrainian Foreign Minister vowed to fight and defeat Russia.

Putin’s Escalation and Dominance Propaganda

After attempts to shut down Russia’s power, Russia reminded the world of its nuclear arsenal over the weekend with nuclear weapons tests overseen by President Putin himself.  It is high time Russia prioritizes global responsibility for its national interests.

After the declaration of war, Ukraine will not surrender without a fight and is calling on the international community to support their efforts in defending itself from Russia. All the while Russia attempts to sustain its global interests and preserve domestic support for its efforts, its actions have been viewed as irrational and heinous among much of the international community.

 

Manasvini Rao, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

in Rise to Peace blog / Russia / Ukraine 0 comments
Ukraine
 by Rise to Peace

Ukraine is Fearful of a Possible Attack: Emergency Call for Help

There is an urgent call for help in Ukraine as it has been under the constant threat of a possible attack.  Generally, too many unresolved issues have become highly complicated through the years. Currently, Russia is looming along the Ukrainian border, creating speculation of an imminent attack. Numerous terrorist threats have been made and, unfortunately, could not be dismantled or somehow settled. It appears terrorist threats are steadily increasing in Ukraine.

Ukraine’s Vulnerability Against Russia

Lately, Ukraine and its Western allies have watched Russia purposefully assemble forces in excess of 100,000 men on the border. In spite of the fact that he professes to have no expectation of attacking, President Vladimir Putin is tactically innovative.

Ultimately, President Putin is trying to prevent Ukraine from joining both NATO and the E.U. by displaying Russia’s power and strongarming the world to comply with his demands. One of President Putin’s strategies is to create tension between the U.S., its allies, and international organizations.  Also, Russia is attempting to undermine the U.S. and President Biden by highlighting the recent fallout of events in Afghanistan. Additionally, President Putin hopes to impress Chinese President Xi Jinping through his display of force.

Ultimately, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine did not begin overnight. Russia fears that Ukraine’s acceptance into NATO would undermine its political and cultural dominance in the region, and also belittle its power and authority in Ukraine.  Additionally, Russia fears that ethnic conflicts may arise once Ukraine joins NATO, resulting in harmful practices against the Russian-minority population in Ukraine.

The Upsurge of The Terrorist Excursion

Several attacks have aimed their sites on Ukrainian targets, resulting in the Ukrainian government’s recent announcement that it has impeded several premeditated assaults within its borders, such as a bombing in Kyiv. Currently, attacks have been focused against property, however, some fatalities have been reported.

While attacks have currently been aimed at Ukrainian targets, this could change in the future incidents focusing against differing targets.

In January, the Biden organization deduced that Russia was secretively planning assaults against its own rebel partners in eastern Ukraine. “The U.S. has information that indicates Russia prepositioned a group of operatives to conduct a false-flag operation in eastern Ukraine,” an authority told CNN. “The operatives are trained in urban warfare and in using explosives to carry out acts of sabotage against Russia’s own proxy forces,” an official told CNN.

Outcomes And Future Advice

In 2022, Russia has multiple types of attacks to choose from in which they have achieved success in the past.  One such tactic Russia could use is a raid, however this would require extensive manpower. Some experts predict that for Russia to conduct a successful raid, they would require at least 175,000 troops.

However, if Russia chooses to conduct a raid, they will need to consider the cost of other resources, besides just manpower. This attack style would require a significant number of guns, surface-to-surface missiles, and air strikes against both Ukrainian personnel and equipment, such as maritime vessels. For Ukraine to handle this mounting and tentative Russian threat, it is imperative they receive assistance from foreign allies to deter a potential ambush.

While Russia is well equipped for a physical confrontation with Ukraine, they may also be planning a cyberattack, similar to their attacks in 2014, possibly targeting Ukraine’s weapons, communications, and electric systems.

Ukraine is unquestionably the center of attention at the moment, as there is a strong possibility of an attack from Russia. There have been numerous terrorist threats and now more than ever lurks the danger for the entire country. The U.S. should be prepared to assist in the event that Russia does instigate an attack against Ukraine.

 

Katerina Rebecca Paraskeva, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

in Rise to Peace blog / Russia / Ukraine 0 comments