MENA

 by Ali Almullaali

The More We Sweat in Peace, The Less We Bleed in War

 

The effects of War:

The political, sectarian, and ideological conflicts and civil wars taking place in the Middle East since the late 1990s have had devastating effects on social, psychological, and economic frontiers. These threaten to kill the aspirations of multitudes living in and around the conflict zones. These conflicts threaten society as a whole and put its very institutions at stake. The Middle East’s wars and conflicts cause many people in the region to live in despair. When war breaks out, state institutions are forced to close their doors to the citizenry, reduce jobs and services and lead to unemployment and an increase in poverty. This snowballs into more dire psychological consequences, negatively affecting minds and thoughts. A lack of funding and opportunities leads individuals to feel they are incapable of achieving their desired ambitions and goals. Not knowing when, how or even if a conflict will end leaves individuals intimidated and frightened of the future. The psychological pain that individuals endure as a result of recurring political, sectarian, ideological, and civil wars leave one with little choice but to consider leaving his or her childhood and school memories, relatives, friends, and even customs and traditions of his or her society he or she grew up in behind for other regions away from war to search for a more decent life. Family displacement and dispersion, the suffering of children and the deterioration of economic, social and political conditions all follow from war and conflict. Here are some other consequences:

  • Educators might be also forced to collect their belongings and flee when schools’ doors are closed due to war. Students lose access to more than education and role models they can emulate, they lose the desire to maintain their education.
  • War diminishes the effectiveness of law in keeping societal spectra organized and regulated. In light of the law’s weakness and ineffectiveness, criminality, looting, and theft all ensue. The consequence of such criminality is a deviation from social norms, social conduct and individual civilian behavior from a correct path consistent with historical traditions and customs aligned with ethical legislation and international systems.
  • Conflict and wars are major causes of the spread of deadly diseases such as Cholera among others. The international community has witnessed the spread of Cholera in Yemen beginning in 2016 due to a war whose roots political, civil and sectarian. Cholera spread rapidly through various cities due to the lack of safe, treated drinking water.
  • This video shows the impact of war on children: https://youtu.be/dG8qrqCDOmU

The individual’s role in spreading a culture of peace in Middle Eastern societies:

Each individual plays an essential role in the development of society and its foundations. Each individual can be a source of energy and power for his or her society. When society sets the general goals and expected tasks that need to be achieved, it is the individual who implements them, participating in different activities to turn societal goals into reality. Every person in the Middle East, whether Muslim, Jewish, Christian or non-believer in the Abrahamic religions, male or female, is directly and indirectly linked to the security and stability of the Middle East and the world as a whole. Each individual in the Middle East must realize that he or she has great responsibilities as regards improving and building their societies. Each individual in the Middle East must also realize that he or she is the maker and source of peace and that peace is initiated from within each individual. If an individual wants to get rid of the scourge of war, if the individual wants to prevent the poisons of conflict from paralyzing society’s development, if the individual wants peace to prevail in Middle Eastern societies, then he or she must first understand the principles of peaceful societies and cultures that serve as a foundations for human coexistence.

Freedom is one of the most important principles on which a culture of peace is based. Freedom is a central and a fundamental pillar of peace and coexistence between the members of a society. We must recognize and assert that “absolute” freedom does not exist in any society in the world. We only think “absolute” freedom exists. Because “absolute” freedom can also mean “absolute” chaos and “absolute” corruption and this is unacceptable. Freedom itself does exist, but it is restricted in accordance with the agreed upon limitations of society’s values, idea, and traditions. Freedom comes in many forms. The following are some forms of freedom: freedom of expression, freedom of opinion, freedom of the press, freedom to wear the clothing you like, etc. One of the most important freedoms that must be understood thoroughly and appreciated by the individual living in the Middle East is freedom of belief and religion.

Judaism, Christianity, and Islam are the three monotheistic and Abrahamic religions that constitute an integral part of Middle Eastern history and culture. It is also worth mentioning that the three religions were born, so to say, in and around the Middle East. Although there are differences between these religions, many religious scholars conclude that the similarities between these religions are more numerous than the differences. This video explains how these three religions are connected to each other https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xyE3ITVb6E

Because the similarities outweigh the differences, each individual in the Middle East should appreciate and glorify those similarities to pave the way for tolerance and coexistence to in turn increase cooperation and harmony between Middle Eastern societies. Individuals must respect differences between the three religions to stop the bloodshed and avoid ideological and sectarian wars. Differences in beliefs and religion should not spoil people’s relations with each other and people should not seek to eliminate a party or side that disagree with their views.

Islam and the Freedom of Religion:

There are many verses from the Qur’an, the Islamic faith’s holy book, that show the importance of respect for others’ beliefs and religion.  The verses emphasize the importance of not interfering with other people’s affairs and of not forcibly imposing beliefs or religion on others. It is not the right of any person to interfere in the relationship of another person with his or her God. Everyone has the right to choose his or her own beliefs and religion. And everyone is responsible for his or her own actions. The following are some examples from the Qur’an:

“There is no compulsion in religion” The Cow: 256

“I do not worship what you worship, you do not worship what I worship, I will never worship what you worship, you will never worship what I worship, you have your religion and I have mine” The Disbelievers: 2-6

Human beings have no right to attack the beliefs of other people and the only one who can judge people is God. Human beings have the right to offer advice but without anger. Humans have the right to debate and support their arguments with proof and evidence in a calm and respectful manner. Humans have the right to express their opinions but without encroachment or assault on others. Humans do not have the right to force others to change their views and beliefs.

  • ({Prophet}, call people to the way of your Lord with wisdom and good teaching. Argue with them in the most courteous way) The Bee: 125

It is crucial that we interpret and understand the verses of any religious text very carefully to determine the intended meaning. Proper interpretation requires careful study and this is not always an easy task. People should strive to embody the greatest integrity when they interpret verses of a religious text.

Organizing events, seminars, discussions, and workshops:

In order to create an atmosphere of cooperation and peace among individuals in Middle Eastern societies, to enable the individual to develop his or her interpersonal skills, and to encourage the individual to actively engage in the development of his or her society, we should organize and coordinate events, seminars, discussions and workshops that bring together individuals from different Middle Eastern communities to address important topics and instill peaceful values, principles, and behavior within every individual. Some examples of constructive topics that can be addressed through workshops include:

  • Teamwork and team building
  • Self and time management
  • Communication and presentation skills
  • Negotiation skills
  • Work ethics and behavior
  • The idea of peace and the role of the individual in achieving peace and tolerance
  • The idea of freedom and how to carefully use freedom to build society and not to destroy it

This is just an example that shows how an individual can use his or her time wisely to contribute to society instead of wasting time in initiating conflicts with other groups of people.

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 by Lindsay Stanek

Poverty and Violent Extremism in Yemen

For over 1,000 days now, Yemen has been devastated by horrific violence and a brutal civil war.[1] In 2014, the Houthis, a group of Zaidi Shi’a rebels who subscribe to the principles of pan-Islamism,[2] advanced into the Yemeni capital of Sana’a. By January 2015, the rebels had gained control of the presidential palace and successfully pushed the Yemeni government from power.

A student at the Aal Okab school stands in the ruins of one of his former classrooms. He and his fellow pupils now attend lesson in UNICEF tents nearby.

President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi was eventually forced to resign, parliament was dissolved and a Houthi ruling council was established in its place.[3] In March 2015, the Saudi-led military coalition targeted the Houthis and began bombing the rebels in an effort to dislodge them from Sana’a.[4] While the Saudi coalition was able to aid Hadi and various local forces in regaining southern governorates of Yemen, the Houthis continue to control much of the north- including strategic parts of the country such as Sana’a.[5]  On December 4, 2017, Ali Abdullah Saleh, the former president of Yemen who had stepped down during the Arab Spring in 2011, was killed by the Iranian backed Houthis. Driven by the desire to regain power, Saleh and his loyalists formally allied with the Houthis in 2015.  However, he broke ties with the rebels in December 2017 and days after expressing his support for Riyadh, the Houthis killed him.

In Yemen, alliances seem to be constantly shifting and the political situation appears to be an endless quagmire. The unrest and dynamic conflict has enabled the Yemen based group, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), to greatly expand its territorial control and there are ISIS training camps in al Bayda governorate.[6] While AQAP remains a much greater threat than ISIS in Yemen, it is clear that the war torn country has become a breeding ground for terrorism. While a thorough analysis of the current political situation in Yemen is beyond the scope of this discussion, this piece will seek to examine the relationship between poverty and terrorism in Yemen. I will argue that while poverty is not the only underlying cause for terrorist activity in Yemen, it frequently serves as a mobilizing factor that aids in AQAP’s recruitment efforts.

Her bruised eyes still swollen shut, Buthaina Muhammad Mansour, believed to be four or five, doesn’t yet know that her parents, five siblings and uncle were killed when an air strike flattened their home in Yemen’s capital. Despite a concussion and skull fractures, doctors think Buthaina will pull through – her family’s sole survivor of the Aug 25 attack, on an apartment building, that residents blame on a Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen since 2015. The alliance said in a statement it would investigate the air strike, which killed at least 12 civilians.

The civil war in Yemen has produced the world’s worst humanitarian crisis as well as the world’s worst cholera outbreak. More than ten thousand innocent civilians have been killed,[7] over fourteen million people are without access to medical care and millions have been internally displaced by the conflict. The Saudi coalition has imposed a de facto blockade, which has significantly worsened the crisis and now roughly seven million people are at risk of famine.[8] The ongoing violence and extreme poverty in Yemen have left families extremely vulnerable. In the April 2016 United Nations annual report on children and armed conflict, the UN Secretary-General reported that…“in Yemen, a particularly worrisome escalation of conflict has been seen. The United Nations verified a fivefold increase in the number of children recruited in 2015 compared with the previous year.”[9]

Yemen is a state on the brink of collapse and this has produced an enabling environment in which extremists are much more successful at mobilizing support for their violent causes. One way terrorists have been able to exploit the extreme poverty of Yemen and gain new recruits is through social service provisions. AQAP has appeared in images and videos on Twitter, showing the group’s fighters paving roads in the Hadramout province and assisting local hospitals.[10] Elisabeth Kendall, a Yemen scholar at Oxford University, tells Reuters, “In one video posted on Feb. 28, 2016, AQAP members deliver free medical supplies and equipment to the kidney dialysis and cancer wings of a local hospital.”

In another video, an AQAP militant states, “These are some medicines from your brothers, the Guardians of Sharia, to al-Jamii hospital which was going to be closed … because of no money.”[11] The deputy prime minister of Yemen, Abdel-Karim al-Arhabi, is well aware of the relationship between violent extremism and poverty, especially when it comes to young boys who are often recruited as foot soldiers. Abdel-Karim al-Arhabi states, “Most young people have no prospects in life. Those fanatics offer them the illusion that they can take power and implement authentic Islam – and if they get killed they go to paradise. It’s a win-win situation for them.”[12]

Yemen has been in the grip of civil war since March 2015, when Houthi rebels drove out the government and took over the capital, Sana’a. The crisis quickly escalated, allowing al Qaeda and ISIS — enemies of the Houthis — to grow stronger amid the chaos.

It is clear that young men faced with high levels of poverty and little to no employment prospects are often lured to organizations like AQAP. AQAP not only provides social services but also the promise of financial rewards and compensation.[13] The links between poverty, unemployment and young Yemeni men joining al-Qaeda and its affiliates are not new. Salim Ahmed Hamdan, the first Guantanamo detainee to stand trial before the military commissions and a Yemeni citizen, worked as a driver for Osama bin Laden. The Sana’a based mosque where Hamdan was recruited was described as a “gathering place for the dispossessed,” and thus “exerted an especially strong pull on the country’s poor.”[14] Hamdan claimed to have chosen to work for al-Qaeda in Afghanistan because, “working as a driver and mechanic in bin Laden’s motor pool paid better than driving a dabab (minibus) in Sana.”[15]

In this discussion, it is vital to note that many researchers have claimed that the terrorism-poverty thesis is flawed. However, poverty’s role in undermining state capacity has often been overlooked and scholars have often failed to make distinctions between terrorist elites and impoverished communities. Karin von Hippel explains, “Although the leaders of terrorist organizations seem to come from both indigent and bourgeoisie backgrounds, this is not true of their humble servants. Strangely, most researchers recognize that poverty may be a factor among lower ranks but do not include the foot soldiers in their research when aggregating data”.[16]

We cannot dismiss the fact that elites often use the grievance of poverty as a recruitment mechanism and extremists continuously exploit ungoverned or disputed territory. Corinne Graff of The Brookings Institution contends, “There is little evidence to suggest that poverty does not affect the incidence of terrorist attacks. The body of scholarly research thus far has failed to establish this, let alone explain how to measure terrorism. Hence the quantitative data and ensuing data disputing such a relationship remain a poor guide for policy. More convincing is the mounting evidence confirming that poor weak states are vulnerable to violent extremists.”

Abdellatif Allami walks with his three-year-old daughter Sara in the Harat Al-Masna’a slum in Sana’a, home to the families of former factory workers. They used to receive a basic pension of around $120 a month, but the payments stopped seven months ago, and the families now rely on donations to survive.

We cannot simply overlook the fact that “an estimated 17 million Yemenis (about 60 percent of the total population) are estimated food insecure and a further 7 million severely food insecure…malnutrition has increased by 57 percent since 2015 and now affects close to 3.3 million people, 462,000 of which are children under five.”[17] If the state truly does collapse, Yemen will not only become a terrorism hotbed for Sunni jihadists but also for Iran backed Shia militant groups.

Sources:

[1] Faisal Edroos and Ahmad Algohbary, “1,000 days of war in Yemen ‘land of blood and bombs'”, Al Jazeera, December 20, 2017.

[2]“Q&A: What do the Houthis want?”, Al Jazeera, October 2, 2014.

[3]“Yemen: Houthi, Saleh council formation criticised by UN”, Al Jazeera, July 29, 2016.

[4] “Saudi Arabia launches air strikes in Yemen”, BBC News, March 26, 2015

[5] “Yemen Control Map & Report – January 2018”, Political Geography Now, January 7, 2018.

[6] DoD News, Defense Media Activity, “U.S. Forces Conduct Strike Against ISIS Training Camps in Yemen”, October 16, 2017, U.S. Department of Defense.

[7] Nicolas Niarchos, “How the U.S. Is Making the War in Yemen Worse”, The New Yorker, January 22, 2018.

[8] Rick Gladstone, “U.S. Agency Foresees Severe Famine in Yemen Under Saudi Blockade”, The New York Times, November. 21, 2017.

[9] United Nations General Assembly Security Council.  “Children and Armed Conflict, Report of the Secretary General” A/70/836–S/2016/360.

[10] Yara Bayoumy, Noah Browning and Mohammed Ghobari.“How Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen has made al Qaeda stronger – and richer”, Reuters Investigates, April 8, 2016.

[11] Ibid.

[12] Ian Black, “Yemen terrorism: Soft approach to jihadists starts to backfire as poverty fuels extremism” The Guardian, July 29, 2008.

[13] Christopher Swift, “Arc of Convergence: AQAP, Ansar al-Shari’s and the Struggle for Yemen”, CTC Sentinel 5, no. 6 (2012).

[14] Susan E. Rice, Corinne Graff, and Carlos Pascual, Confronting Poverty: Weak States and U.S. National Security, (Washington, DC, Brookings Institution Press, 2010), 69.

[15] Ibid.

[16] Karin von Hippel, “The Role of Poverty in Radicalization and Terrorism” Debating Terrorism and Counterterrorism (Thousand Oaks: Congressional Quarterly Press, 2014), 61.

[17] “The World Bank in Yemen”, The World Bank, April 1, 2017.

[print-me]

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 by Rise to Peace

The Global War on Terrorism: Myths, Realities & Solutions

On Wednesday December 6th, the non-governmental organization (NGO) Rise to Peace hosted a seminar at the Elliott School of International Affairs entitled The Global War on Terrorism: Myths, Realities & Solutions. On the panel was the founder of Rise To Peace and GW Master of International Policy and Practice (MIPP) student, Ahmad Mohibi. Ahmad spoke about his life growing up in Afghanistan and his mission to reduce terrorism through education.

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The panel was moderated by Michael R. Sherwin, an Assistant United States Attorney and included Dr. Gawdat Bahgat, Ambassador Limbert and former MIPP Director Dr. Christopher Kojm.

The event was exceptionally well attended with many individuals standing in the back of Lindner Commons just to watch the panel speak on this complex yet important issue. Current MIPP Director, Dr. Matthew Levinger, spoke before the event stating the importance of this topic and his pleasure in seeing one of his students, Ahmad, address this in a proactive way.

After the event, students and faculty stayed to discuss the global war on terrorism and its implications on U.S. foreign policy and global stability. Ahmad was thrilled with the turnout for Rise To Peace’s inaugural speaking series event, the next of which will be in Turkey.
He said “I am thrilled that the MIPP program supported me and my organization, Rise To Peace, to host the Global War on Terrorism panel. The panel speakers were incredible, but what made the event most memorable was the energy and enthusiasm of the student audience, which shows the spirit of inquiry and justice runs strong throughout the Elliott School.”
Article by, Masters of International Policy and Practice, George Washington University.
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 by Tim O'Shea

ISIS in Kirkuk: What’s Happening and What it Means

What’s happening

Recent ISIS losses in Kirkuk Province in Iraq have been the latest blow in a series of major hits to the group, including their loss of their major stronghold of Mosul.  These losses represent a total decimation of the group’s strength: at its peak, the group controlled a third of Iraq, and yet it’s now relegated to mainly rural areas and small cities [1].  The attack itself was captioned by the retaking of Hawija, the most prominent city in the region.

The attack was carried out by a combination of U.S.-backed Iraqi forces and Iranian-backed Shia militias, which forced the remaining ISIS forces to fall back to isolated villages along the Syrian border [2].  The exact makeup of the group is controversial, with Iran-backed forces holding serious sway over even U.S. trained Iraqi units [3].  Regardless of the makeup of the unit, they were effective in removing the last major ISIS stronghold in northern Iraq, removing an important strategic asset for the so-called Caliphate.

The Future

The fight against ISIS is likely to morph into much more asymmetric and drawn-out warfare now that the group holds no urban centers.  Urban areas not only offered ISIS units the space to train and plan attacks but also offered the population needed for to maintain the group’s recruitment and resources.  Instead, Iraqi forces are now faced with clearing the vast deserts of Anbar Province complemented with a porous Syrian border [4].

While this seems daunting, Iraqi forces have confronted similar arenas in the fight so far: in the days leading up to the assault on Hawija, forces retook 25 small villages throughout Kirkuk Province while preparing to retake Hawija [5].Indeed, Kirkuk had already been experiencing mainly terror tactics such as IED and hit and run style attacks rather than full-on battles [6].

However, the relegation of the remainder of ISIS soldiers to this frontier may intensify this form of conflict.  Especially given the difficulty of maintaining consistent control over desert territory as well as tracking groups in the absence of strong infrastructure, this last leg of the conflict would be quite protracted.

Perhaps the most unsettling prospect of the decline of ISIS is the inevitable reintroduction of the social and political crises that generated space for ISIS to grow.  The emerging crisis with Kurdish independence, new worries over Sunni-Shi’a tensions as a result of Iranian involvement in the conflict, spillover from the Syrian civil war, and the huge task of postwar reconstruction could all contribute to new security challenges if not planned for proactively [7].

Indeed, the governor of Kirkuk noted the legacy of anti-system political violence stemming from the region, spanning al-Qaeda to the hypothetical groups to come [8].  And while it may seem arrogant to begin postwar planning, it was the same short-term planning strategies that have failed the United States time and time again in protracted wars around the globe.  Unless the U.S. wishes to be back in Iraq in another 5 years, the need for comprehensive postwar planning should be done soon.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[1] http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/fighting-in-kirkuk-threatens-u-s-canadian-efforts-to-defeat-isis-1.4357964

[2] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/05/iraqi-army-claims-recapture-islamic-state-isis-held-areas-hawija

[3] http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/10/16/if-trump-wants-to-confront-iran-he-should-start-in-kirkuk/

[4] https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/isis/1.817709

[5] https://www.albawaba.com/news/iraqi-forces-recapture-25-kirkuk-villages-isis-1028378

[6] http://www.rudaw.net/english/analysis/19092017

[7] https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/editorial/islamic-state-collapse-on-the-battlefield-1.3255019

[8] http://www.rudaw.net/english/analysis/19092017

[9] Wikimedia Commons

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 by Tim O'Shea

The Flawed Narrative of Terrorist Attack Claims

The Flawed Narrative of Terrorist Attack Claims

 Every extremist or terrorist group has branded itself as martyrs or freedom fighters, fighting against unjust governments, economic systems, or religious institutions.  And yet simultaneously, the same groups often either explicitly target civilians or use tactics that show little regard for humanitarian consequences, including roadside IEDs and suicide car bombs.  

Luckily for citizens seeking to understand the war on extremism, the evolution of military and police intelligence as well as press corps able to dissect terrorist attacks, most attacks usually have a main suspect.  From June 7th to August 12th of 2017, 53% of attacks had a suspected group responsible, while groups claimed responsibility only 16% of the time. 

With the amount of claimed attacks relatively small, it’s hard to believe that they would accurately reflect the true damage that terrorists impose on society.  In order to examine whether these claims can be trusted in profiling terrorist groups, we can look to a quick cross section of terrorist activity.

The following table displays the breakdown of target type for terrorist attacks which had suspected culprits versus claims of responsibility.  All attacks took place between June 11th and August 7th, and all attacks were verified by two independent sources. The three groups were chosen based on how many attacks in both the Suspected and Claimed categories so that there would be a balance between the two when broken down.  The numbers for the Taliban include attacks claimed or suspected to be performed by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP, a Pakistani offshoot of the Taliban.  The results are shown below.  

 

Distribution of Target Types between Claimed and Suspected attacks for Three Terrorist Groups
Group Attribution Level Target type Total
Civilian Security Political Unknown
Al-Shabaab Claimed 1 (10%) 7 (70%) 2 (20%) 0 10
Suspected 11 (61%) 4 (22%) 3 (17%) 0 18
Total 12 (43%) 11 (39%) 5 (18%) 0 28
ISIS Claimed 3 (50%) 1 (17%) 2 (33%) 0 6
Suspected 3 (43%) 3 (43%) 0 1 (14%) 7
Total 6 (46%) 4 (31%) 2 (15%) 1 (8%) 13
Taliban (including TTP) Claimed 1 (10%) 8 (80%) 1 (10%) 0 10
Suspected 3 (50%) 3 (50%) 0 0 6
Total 4 (25%) 11 (69%) 1 (6%) 0 16
*All data provided by the Rise To Peace Active Intelligence Database

Al-Shabaab and the Taliban appear to follow a similar pattern to each other: The groups tend to overstate how much they attack security targets, like police stations or military patrols, and overstate how many civilians they attack and kill.  For example, while attacks on security targets made up only 39% of Al-Shabaab attacks, they comprised 70% of the attacks the groups claimed responsibility for. Similarly, only 10% of claimed attacks by the Taliban targeted civilians, but this occurred in 25% of their total suspected attacks.  

While the small sample size and simple statistical display shown here may not constitute a completely thorough analysis, it confirms what anyone would suspect of such groups. Whether to attempt to boost their own legitimacy or avoid civilian and humanitarian backlash, terrorist groups have little incentive to claim responsibility on attacks in ways that accurately reflect what their attacks do. Always investigate and consider different perspectives when judging the actions of such violent groups.  At Rise To Peace, we hope to mitigate these types of misinformation and flawed narratives in order to better inform people on the true evil of global extremism and terrorism.

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