Ukraine
 by Rise to Peace

How the U.S. is Assisting Ukraine Against Russia’s Attacks

Russian-Ukrainian tensions have persisted since February 2014 and have now escalated to war. Currently, U.S. troops located in Europe are on high alert as Russia moves further into Ukraine. Since the first day of attacks, Russian missiles have bombarded Ukrainian cities and military sites.

While attacks erupted in Kyiv, crowds of people flocked into trains and fled in their cars. President Biden has issued new sanctions towards Russia stating that President Putin has imposed this war and has set a dangerous precedent that nations can take what they want by force.

U.S Troops and NATO’s Mission

U.S. troops have several missions, but the primary message sent to Russia is to not attack NATO and their members, particularly those abutting Russia’s eastern border.  Some NATO members stated that they have a bad history with Russia and wanted reassurances.

The U.S. and other members of NATO have sent forces, troops, helicopters and equipment to the Baltics, Poland, Romania, and many other eastern European members of the NATO alliance.

Some U.S. troops in Poland may help with the refugees migrating from Ukraine into Poland. Recently, NATO had an urgent meeting to organize forces in eastern Europe to prevent Russia from trying to move beyond Ukraine. There is also an appeal from the Baltics’ government to help arm Ukrainian forces so they can defend themselves.

President Biden’s Decision

President Biden concluded that the U.S. is not going to engage in war with Russia or place military troops on the ground in Ukraine. Ukraine is in a very challenging situation, given that their military is smaller than Russia’s and that currently the U.S. and NATO members are not planning on sending military forces to assist.

Ultimately, the conflict has persisted and continues to escalate. However, it is possible that Ukraine could efficiently combat Russia, depending on where Russia deploys military troops and how much territory it attempts to control. Currently, it is unclear if Russia could successfully occupy or control large amounts of the Ukrainian population and territory without significant retaliation.

The Impact of Russia’s Invasion

One of the largest attacks by Russia thus far has left at least nine people dead and dozens of children injured after a Ukrainian school was destroyed. Missile fragments left at the scene of the attack left a clear mark that Russia was behind the senseless attack.  Even worse, after further analysis it was discovered that the attack was actually the result of a cluster munition, which is a banned weapon by 110 countries.

Russian forces have intentionally targeted civilians all the while negotiating peace talks. Ultimately, this conflict is leaving Ukraine on the verge of a significant humanitarian crisis.

The Ukrainian Military

The Ukrainian Army and Air Force have put up a strong resistance and continue to slow down Russia’s advances. The U.S. has indicated that the Russian government is growing increasingly frustrated by their lack of progress.  The Ukrainian military has demonstrated that it will not backdown without a fight and can be effective against Russian troops.

Ultimately, Ukrainians have demonstrated their courage by calling up their military reserves and citizens volunteering to take up arms in the fight against Russia. Ukrainian citizens have displayed a unified and brave front as they fervently defend their homeland.

 

Mildred Miranda, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

Rise to Peace
www.risetopeace.org
in Rise to Peace blog / Russia / Ukraine / United States 0 comments
Putin
 by Rise to Peace

President Putin’s Tsarist Imperial Nationalism

The worst-case scenario is unfolding, a full-scale air and land attack from multiple directions is striking Ukraine, and the attacks have already killed over 40 soldiers and 10 civilians. The Russian Federation, led by President Putin, has instigated a a war of aggression to showcase unnecessary hegemony over a neighbor in an attempt to gain the world’s attention, and Belarus has shown support towards Russia’s actions.

The aim of this war, as stated officially by Russia, is to overthrow the Ukrainian government and carry out an ideological cleansing of Ukraine. Russia’s actions seem to emulate the actions of the Taliban during their annexation of Afghanistan. Ultimately, this conflict between Russia and Ukraine has spurred global actions and could significantly escalate if the threat of nuclear power increases.

As per Russia’s strategy, they first launched strikes on Ukraine’s military infrastructure and border guard units, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Then, Ukrainian forces stated that Russian military vehicles had crossed the border near Kharkiv in the north, Luhansk in the east, Russian-annexed Crimea in the south and from Belarus. Belarus’s authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko said his country’s military were not involved but could be if needed.

Russian tanks were later seen on the outskirts of Kharkiv, a city of 1.4 million people. Additionally, Russian forces reportedly landed by sea at Ukraine’s major port cities of Odesa on the Black Sea and Mariupol on the internal Sea of Azov.

The casualties are the latest result after a series of fast-paced advancements that began when Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a military operation in Ukraine in the early hours of Thursday, February 24th. Following President Putin’s invasion order, explosions were reported in several areas of Ukraine and air sirens went off in Kyiv, indicating that the capital city is under attack.

Ukraine’s National Emergency

The first blasts rang out just minutes after President Putin gave a televised speech Wednesday evening stating that he was authorizing military action. President Putin warned other countries that if they tried to intervene, they would face a Russian response “so severe that no foreign nations have ever experienced it before.”

Ukrainian officials reported that cruise or ballistic missiles targeted military control centres in the area of the capital, Kyiv. Russian forces also broke through the state border of the Kiev region, according to a post on Telegram from Ukraine’s Ministry of the Interior.

Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that the country has severed diplomatic relations with Russia after Moscow launched an all-out invasion of Ukraine by land, air and sea on Thursday, the biggest attack by one state against another in Europe since World War II.

President Zelensky has declared martial law in Ukraine and the Ukrainian Foreign Minister vowed to fight and defeat Russia.

Putin’s Escalation and Dominance Propaganda

After attempts to shut down Russia’s power, Russia reminded the world of its nuclear arsenal over the weekend with nuclear weapons tests overseen by President Putin himself.  It is high time Russia prioritizes global responsibility for its national interests.

After the declaration of war, Ukraine will not surrender without a fight and is calling on the international community to support their efforts in defending itself from Russia. All the while Russia attempts to sustain its global interests and preserve domestic support for its efforts, its actions have been viewed as irrational and heinous among much of the international community.

 

Manasvini Rao, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

Rise to Peace
www.risetopeace.org
in Rise to Peace blog / Russia / Ukraine 0 comments
Armed Strike
 by Rise to Peace

Three Days of Terror: The ELN’s Armed Strike and its Implications for Colombia

The National Liberation Army (ELN) guerrilla announced the beginning of an armed strike in Colombia occurring from February 23 – 26, 2022. Multiple terrorist actions have been registered throughout the nation’s territory, primarily affecting civilians.

The ELN’s armed strike demonstrates the revitalization of this guerrilla group and its capabilities to carry out attacks in Colombia. It is likely that this is the first of many strikes and that guerrilla terrorism in Colombia will increase in the future.

The Statement

On February 20th, the ELN published a statement announcing an armed strike with the aim of completely paralyzing Colombia’s commercial activities. The goal of the strike is to protest against the government and the policies of the current Colombian president, Iván Duque.

In addition, the document published by the ELN states that the population will only be able to mobilize for humanitarian reasons related to funeral activities or hospital emergencies. The ELN recommends, for security reasons, that individuals stay in their homes or workplaces and avoid displacements.

A few hours after the announcement, the Colombian Minister of Defense, Diego Molano, stated that the Colombian Public Forces are prepared to face the threats of the insurgent group and that the statement seeks to generate fear among Colombians.

Three Days of Attacks

On February 23rd attacks began throughout Colombia.  Approximately 18 terrorist actions were registered, especially in the department of Norte de Santander.

One attack on the first day of the armed strike included an explosion in Cúcuta, Norte de Santander, which caused the death of Jelly, an anti-explosives dog, and injured her caretaker.

A few kilometers away, in the municipality of Los Patios, Norte de Santander, a suspicious package with a red and black ELN flag was reported, which was successfully detonated.

Likewise, a truck painted with the colors of the ELN flag was found blocking the road between Cúcuta and the municipality of Sardinata.

In the municipality of Pailitas, Cesar, the ELN detonated a bomb on the Los Trujillos bridge that connects Pailitas with the municipality of Curumaní. In the same municipality, three trucks were incinerated in a village.

On the Pan-American highway between Popayán and Cali, men armed with rifles, wearing camouflage and ELN armbands created a roadblock and set fire to a truck, blocking the road for several hours.

Another relevant attack on the first day of the armed strike occurred in San Gil, Santander, where an explosive was detonated on a road, injuring six workers of the National Roads Institute (Invías).

Terrorist attacks continued into the second day of the armed strike.  In Fortul, Aracuca, ELN militiamen attacked the town’s police station with rifle fire and grenades, while at the same time taking pictures to spread propaganda.

Moreover, in Ricaurte, Nariño, the ELN incinerated the car of a villager and left banners alluding to the organization along the road. Additionally, ELN members killed Julio Victoria Cárdenas, a social leader in Litoral San Juan, Chocó.

During the third day of the armed strike the unrelenting attacks continued. On the Cúcuta-Ocaña road, two alleged ELN members blew up a stretch of the road by leaving an explosive device inside a culvert.  Also, in  Neiva, the capital of the department of Huila, an ELN flag  was found hanging from a bridge.  Finally, in Pelaya, Cesar, the ELN destroyed part of a bridge with explosives.

The Implications and the Future of the ELN in Colombia

The ELN guerrilla armed strike represents a challenge for Colombian authorities, especially since the attacks were strategically carried out a few days before the country’s legislative elections.

It is likely that the armed strike is a show of force by the ELN, a terrorist group which remains in an armed confrontation with FARC dissidents. More importantly, these attacks demonstrate the ELN’s logistical and weapons capacity, allowing them to carry out terrorist acts simultaneously in several departments throughout Colombia.

With imminent political elections, more attacks may occur in the near future. Some hypothesize that attacks may even occur on election day, in order to generate as much terror as possible among Colombians.

Additionally, the attacks may be an attempt to consolidate the ELN’s power in the Colombian territories and force negotiations with the Colombian State, like the government previously did with the FARC.

However, despite the ELN’s possible objectives and short and long term goals, the Colombian State must ensure the reestablishment of public order in the territories most affected by terrorist attacks, especially on election day.

Troop deployments are needed in the departments with the greatest ELN presence in order to confront the guerrillas and reestablish territorial control, and more importantly the population’s confidence.

It is recommended that the Colombian State efficiently employ its counterinsurgency and counterterrorist warfare capabilities to mitigate the impacts of ELN attacks, at least until a permanent solution to the conflict is developed.

 

Daniel Felipe Ruiz Rozo, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

Rise to Peace
www.risetopeace.org
in Latin America / Rise to Peace blog 0 comments
Ukraine
 by Ahmad Shah Mohibi

Russia Invaded Ukraine: What Happens Next?

Russia invaded Ukraine after months of military build-up near the border and failed diplomatic talks with the West. “I have made the decision of a military operation,” said Russian President Vladimir Putin in a statement on live news announcing a full military operation (by land, air, and sea) with the purpose of “demilitarisation and denazification” Ukraine but not “occupy” the country.

On the 24th of February 2022 at roughly 9:30 p.m. ET (4:30 a.m. in Ukraine), Russian troops began their military operations in eastern Ukraine. Heavy fighting is taking place on the border and Ukraine cut off all diplomatic ties to Russia, urging people to take up their arms.

Why an invasion

By invading Ukraine, Russia makes a statement against the United States and its allies to back off from Russia’s doorsteps while showing off their military power to change the world order. Russia has long confronted the Western military alliance with Ukraine, particularly Ukraine’s invitation to join NATO. Russia is afraid of NATO expansion further to the east and does not want its neighbor Ukraine to join this alliance that was set up in 1949 to counterbalance the Soviet Union. Tensions have been rising between the parties before.

In 2014 Russia annexed Crimea. In his speech, Putin mentions that NATO repeatedly ignored Russia’s demands of an equal power balance in Europe. Thus, by attacking Ukraine, Putin puts Russia back on the map as a powerful country that can and will do what it wants when it is not heard.

He further mentioned that any intervention from outside powers (by which the West is meant) to hinder Russia would be met by an immediate response and severe consequences. It also seems that Russia intends to emphasize that the West has made more mistakes in the past. Putin referred to the US and allies attack or “invasion” of Libya, Syria, and the invasion of Iraq. Again, this shows Putin is justifying his military invasion of Ukraine. His argument is: what you can do, we can do too.

Responses from the West

As the US and allies prepare to respond to the Russian military invasion, financial sanctions remain a vital option to avoid further military escalations. For President Biden, it’s going to be a tough sell to the American people given the fact that Americans are burned out of the longest US wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. While the American values and democracy will be on top of Presidents Biden’s agenda, a direct military engagement is not an option as that will lead ultimately lead to catastrophic consequences and possible World War III which will be the end of many of us with existing of nuclear nukes compared WW II.

Since Ukraine is not a member of the alliance, article 5 of the NATO Treaty states that an attack on one NATO country is an attack on the entire alliance. Article 4 of NATO discusses that “the parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the parties is threatened.” This article entails consultations between member states to reach an agreement and take action.

From a NATO standpoint, they cannot declare war, but allies can impose heavy economic sanctions to degrade Russia’s economy with intentions to decrease their military aggression. The United States and the European Union already announced these sanctions, restricting Russia’s access to certain financial accounts, the EU’s capital, and financial markets. However, these sanctions on Russia could also backfire, as the country is one of the main suppliers of the region’s gas. The prices of gas already went high in Europe – one direct impact of the war and the sanctions.

Prospects

It remains to be seen what will happen in the upcoming days. Until Putin’s demands are heard, he will continue to put pressure on the West by increasing military aggression in Ukraine.

History has shown many scenarios could unfold (for instance the implementation of UN safe zones and the break-up of Ukraine). In any case, it is important to not forget the humanitarian side of the conflict: The conflict will prompt Ukrainians to flee, could cause the displacement of millions of Ukrainians, and can lead to many civilian casualties. 

Vibeke Gootzen is a Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow at Rise to Peace

Ahmad Shah Mohibi is the founder of Rise to Peace

Ahmad Shah Mohibi
Ahmad Shah Mohibi, Founder of Rise to Peace and Director of Counterterrorism, served as a U.S. advisor in Afghanistan during Operation Enduring Freedom and later supported national security initiatives in Washington, D.C.
www.ahmadshahmohibi.com/
in Rise to Peace blog 0 comments
Afghan evacuees
 by Rise to Peace

Afghan evacuees in UAE still wait to be resettled in US

Tens of thousands of Afghan evacuees at Emirates Humanitarian City (EHC) and the Tasameem Workers City (TWC) in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE), seeking answers from U.S. Government (USG) while in limbo.

Following the August 2021 collapse of the Afghanistan government and subsequent takeover by the Taliban, the U.S. military evacuated over 100,000 people from Afghanistan during the largest noncombatant evacuation operation (NEO) airlift in history. While tens of thousands of these evacuees were brought into the U.S., others are still in limbo in third countries.

During the NEO operation, the United Arab Emirates agreed to temporarily house an estimated “5000” evacuees in their Emirates Humanitarian City refugee camp while the U.S. could process their immigration cases. The USG evacuation was operating normally with 2-3 chartered flights from the UAE to the U.S. until November 07, 2021 where flights suspended. 

On February 09, 2021, evacuees protested “demanding” answers from the U.S. government which resulted in mass media coverage and eventually grabbed the attention of the US government officials. On February 15, 20 representatives of evacuees (10 women and 10 men) held a meeting with the U.S. State Department and UAE officials, it was announced that the evacuees had agreed to temporarily end their demonstrations to allow their cases to be processed.

Unlike other Afghan refugee camps in Ramstein Air Base in Germany and US army base in Qatar where evacuees have had relatively quick entry processes into the U.S., these individuals live in a state of fear and uncertainty as to their futures.

Evacuees have criticized the insufficient amount of personnel at the site to process and transfer them out of the camp. Additionally, individuals report that when they seek answers from U.S. Embassy staff about their transfer status, they are told a generic answer that lacks clarity. 

https://twitter.com/ahmadsmohibi/status/1491898712024625155?s=20&t=RSKn0nZPfrVhQzmDI-CrgA

This is not the first time Afghan evacuees have protested for U.S. resettlement. In November 2021, Rise to Peace reported an estimated 9,000 Afghan refugees were being housed in Abu Dhabi at the Emirates Humanitarian City refugee camp and demanding answers to their entry status.

Six later, these refugees, including many families, still do not see a clear future ahead of them. Their path to placement in the U.S. is ambiguous and they remain in bleak circumstances within the refugee camp. Some living in the camp have described conditions to be “prison-like”.

Beginning February 9, 2022, refugees in the facility began demonstrations, demanding transparency on their resettlement status. Photos are circling the internet of young children within the camp holding signs that read, “Move Us To The United States As Soon As Possible” and “I Don’t Want To Be Here For More Time”.

Many of these children have gone without any kind of education for the past six months, simply receiving the bare necessities while awaiting resettlement. After initially hoping for speedy entry into a new home country, many families worry for their children’s development. Additionally, there are widespread concerns about the mental health of those being housed in the camps.

One of the loudest concerns from the evacuees at the Emirates Humanitarian City is the uncertainty of when they will be processed and brought to the United States, most notably for those who have valid documents or family sponsorship. Many say they were working with U.S. diplomats and military before the Afghan government collapsed and now feel abandoned in their time of need.

Brynn Larimer, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

Ahmad Shah Mohibi, Founder of Rise to Peace Twitter: @ahmadsmohibi

Rise to Peace
www.risetopeace.org
in Afghanistan / Rise to Peace blog / United States 0 comments