Ukraine
 by Rise to Peace

How the U.S. is Assisting Ukraine Against Russia’s Attacks

Russian-Ukrainian tensions have persisted since February 2014 and have now escalated to war. Currently, U.S. troops located in Europe are on high alert as Russia moves further into Ukraine. Since the first day of attacks, Russian missiles have bombarded Ukrainian cities and military sites.

While attacks erupted in Kyiv, crowds of people flocked into trains and fled in their cars. President Biden has issued new sanctions towards Russia stating that President Putin has imposed this war and has set a dangerous precedent that nations can take what they want by force.

U.S Troops and NATO’s Mission

U.S. troops have several missions, but the primary message sent to Russia is to not attack NATO and their members, particularly those abutting Russia’s eastern border.  Some NATO members stated that they have a bad history with Russia and wanted reassurances.

The U.S. and other members of NATO have sent forces, troops, helicopters and equipment to the Baltics, Poland, Romania, and many other eastern European members of the NATO alliance.

Some U.S. troops in Poland may help with the refugees migrating from Ukraine into Poland. Recently, NATO had an urgent meeting to organize forces in eastern Europe to prevent Russia from trying to move beyond Ukraine. There is also an appeal from the Baltics’ government to help arm Ukrainian forces so they can defend themselves.

President Biden’s Decision

President Biden concluded that the U.S. is not going to engage in war with Russia or place military troops on the ground in Ukraine. Ukraine is in a very challenging situation, given that their military is smaller than Russia’s and that currently the U.S. and NATO members are not planning on sending military forces to assist.

Ultimately, the conflict has persisted and continues to escalate. However, it is possible that Ukraine could efficiently combat Russia, depending on where Russia deploys military troops and how much territory it attempts to control. Currently, it is unclear if Russia could successfully occupy or control large amounts of the Ukrainian population and territory without significant retaliation.

The Impact of Russia’s Invasion

One of the largest attacks by Russia thus far has left at least nine people dead and dozens of children injured after a Ukrainian school was destroyed. Missile fragments left at the scene of the attack left a clear mark that Russia was behind the senseless attack.  Even worse, after further analysis it was discovered that the attack was actually the result of a cluster munition, which is a banned weapon by 110 countries.

Russian forces have intentionally targeted civilians all the while negotiating peace talks. Ultimately, this conflict is leaving Ukraine on the verge of a significant humanitarian crisis.

The Ukrainian Military

The Ukrainian Army and Air Force have put up a strong resistance and continue to slow down Russia’s advances. The U.S. has indicated that the Russian government is growing increasingly frustrated by their lack of progress.  The Ukrainian military has demonstrated that it will not backdown without a fight and can be effective against Russian troops.

Ultimately, Ukrainians have demonstrated their courage by calling up their military reserves and citizens volunteering to take up arms in the fight against Russia. Ukrainian citizens have displayed a unified and brave front as they fervently defend their homeland.

 

Mildred Miranda, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

in Rise to Peace blog / Russia / Ukraine / United States 0 comments
Putin
 by Rise to Peace

President Putin’s Tsarist Imperial Nationalism

The worst-case scenario is unfolding, a full-scale air and land attack from multiple directions is striking Ukraine, and the attacks have already killed over 40 soldiers and 10 civilians. The Russian Federation, led by President Putin, has instigated a a war of aggression to showcase unnecessary hegemony over a neighbor in an attempt to gain the world’s attention, and Belarus has shown support towards Russia’s actions.

The aim of this war, as stated officially by Russia, is to overthrow the Ukrainian government and carry out an ideological cleansing of Ukraine. Russia’s actions seem to emulate the actions of the Taliban during their annexation of Afghanistan. Ultimately, this conflict between Russia and Ukraine has spurred global actions and could significantly escalate if the threat of nuclear power increases.

As per Russia’s strategy, they first launched strikes on Ukraine’s military infrastructure and border guard units, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Then, Ukrainian forces stated that Russian military vehicles had crossed the border near Kharkiv in the north, Luhansk in the east, Russian-annexed Crimea in the south and from Belarus. Belarus’s authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko said his country’s military were not involved but could be if needed.

Russian tanks were later seen on the outskirts of Kharkiv, a city of 1.4 million people. Additionally, Russian forces reportedly landed by sea at Ukraine’s major port cities of Odesa on the Black Sea and Mariupol on the internal Sea of Azov.

The casualties are the latest result after a series of fast-paced advancements that began when Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a military operation in Ukraine in the early hours of Thursday, February 24th. Following President Putin’s invasion order, explosions were reported in several areas of Ukraine and air sirens went off in Kyiv, indicating that the capital city is under attack.

Ukraine’s National Emergency

The first blasts rang out just minutes after President Putin gave a televised speech Wednesday evening stating that he was authorizing military action. President Putin warned other countries that if they tried to intervene, they would face a Russian response “so severe that no foreign nations have ever experienced it before.”

Ukrainian officials reported that cruise or ballistic missiles targeted military control centres in the area of the capital, Kyiv. Russian forces also broke through the state border of the Kiev region, according to a post on Telegram from Ukraine’s Ministry of the Interior.

Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that the country has severed diplomatic relations with Russia after Moscow launched an all-out invasion of Ukraine by land, air and sea on Thursday, the biggest attack by one state against another in Europe since World War II.

President Zelensky has declared martial law in Ukraine and the Ukrainian Foreign Minister vowed to fight and defeat Russia.

Putin’s Escalation and Dominance Propaganda

After attempts to shut down Russia’s power, Russia reminded the world of its nuclear arsenal over the weekend with nuclear weapons tests overseen by President Putin himself.  It is high time Russia prioritizes global responsibility for its national interests.

After the declaration of war, Ukraine will not surrender without a fight and is calling on the international community to support their efforts in defending itself from Russia. All the while Russia attempts to sustain its global interests and preserve domestic support for its efforts, its actions have been viewed as irrational and heinous among much of the international community.

 

Manasvini Rao, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

in Rise to Peace blog / Russia / Ukraine 0 comments
Armed Strike
 by Rise to Peace

Three Days of Terror: The ELN’s Armed Strike and its Implications for Colombia

The National Liberation Army (ELN) guerrilla announced the beginning of an armed strike in Colombia occurring from February 23 – 26, 2022. Multiple terrorist actions have been registered throughout the nation’s territory, primarily affecting civilians.

The ELN’s armed strike demonstrates the revitalization of this guerrilla group and its capabilities to carry out attacks in Colombia. It is likely that this is the first of many strikes and that guerrilla terrorism in Colombia will increase in the future.

The Statement

On February 20th, the ELN published a statement announcing an armed strike with the aim of completely paralyzing Colombia’s commercial activities. The goal of the strike is to protest against the government and the policies of the current Colombian president, Iván Duque.

In addition, the document published by the ELN states that the population will only be able to mobilize for humanitarian reasons related to funeral activities or hospital emergencies. The ELN recommends, for security reasons, that individuals stay in their homes or workplaces and avoid displacements.

A few hours after the announcement, the Colombian Minister of Defense, Diego Molano, stated that the Colombian Public Forces are prepared to face the threats of the insurgent group and that the statement seeks to generate fear among Colombians.

Three Days of Attacks

On February 23rd attacks began throughout Colombia.  Approximately 18 terrorist actions were registered, especially in the department of Norte de Santander.

One attack on the first day of the armed strike included an explosion in Cúcuta, Norte de Santander, which caused the death of Jelly, an anti-explosives dog, and injured her caretaker.

A few kilometers away, in the municipality of Los Patios, Norte de Santander, a suspicious package with a red and black ELN flag was reported, which was successfully detonated.

Likewise, a truck painted with the colors of the ELN flag was found blocking the road between Cúcuta and the municipality of Sardinata.

In the municipality of Pailitas, Cesar, the ELN detonated a bomb on the Los Trujillos bridge that connects Pailitas with the municipality of Curumaní. In the same municipality, three trucks were incinerated in a village.

On the Pan-American highway between Popayán and Cali, men armed with rifles, wearing camouflage and ELN armbands created a roadblock and set fire to a truck, blocking the road for several hours.

Another relevant attack on the first day of the armed strike occurred in San Gil, Santander, where an explosive was detonated on a road, injuring six workers of the National Roads Institute (Invías).

Terrorist attacks continued into the second day of the armed strike.  In Fortul, Aracuca, ELN militiamen attacked the town’s police station with rifle fire and grenades, while at the same time taking pictures to spread propaganda.

Moreover, in Ricaurte, Nariño, the ELN incinerated the car of a villager and left banners alluding to the organization along the road. Additionally, ELN members killed Julio Victoria Cárdenas, a social leader in Litoral San Juan, Chocó.

During the third day of the armed strike the unrelenting attacks continued. On the Cúcuta-Ocaña road, two alleged ELN members blew up a stretch of the road by leaving an explosive device inside a culvert.  Also, in  Neiva, the capital of the department of Huila, an ELN flag  was found hanging from a bridge.  Finally, in Pelaya, Cesar, the ELN destroyed part of a bridge with explosives.

The Implications and the Future of the ELN in Colombia

The ELN guerrilla armed strike represents a challenge for Colombian authorities, especially since the attacks were strategically carried out a few days before the country’s legislative elections.

It is likely that the armed strike is a show of force by the ELN, a terrorist group which remains in an armed confrontation with FARC dissidents. More importantly, these attacks demonstrate the ELN’s logistical and weapons capacity, allowing them to carry out terrorist acts simultaneously in several departments throughout Colombia.

With imminent political elections, more attacks may occur in the near future. Some hypothesize that attacks may even occur on election day, in order to generate as much terror as possible among Colombians.

Additionally, the attacks may be an attempt to consolidate the ELN’s power in the Colombian territories and force negotiations with the Colombian State, like the government previously did with the FARC.

However, despite the ELN’s possible objectives and short and long term goals, the Colombian State must ensure the reestablishment of public order in the territories most affected by terrorist attacks, especially on election day.

Troop deployments are needed in the departments with the greatest ELN presence in order to confront the guerrillas and reestablish territorial control, and more importantly the population’s confidence.

It is recommended that the Colombian State efficiently employ its counterinsurgency and counterterrorist warfare capabilities to mitigate the impacts of ELN attacks, at least until a permanent solution to the conflict is developed.

 

Daniel Felipe Ruiz Rozo, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

in Latin America / Rise to Peace blog 0 comments
Ukraine
 by Ahmad Shah Mohibi

Russia Invaded Ukraine: What Happens Next?

Russia invaded Ukraine after months of military build-up near the border and failed diplomatic talks with the West. “I have made the decision of a military operation,” said Russian President Vladimir Putin in a statement on live news announcing a full military operation (by land, air, and sea) with the purpose of “demilitarisation and denazification” Ukraine but not “occupy” the country.

On the 24th of February 2022 at roughly 9:30 p.m. ET (4:30 a.m. in Ukraine), Russian troops began their military operations in eastern Ukraine. Heavy fighting is taking place on the border and Ukraine cut off all diplomatic ties to Russia, urging people to take up their arms.

Why an invasion

By invading Ukraine, Russia makes a statement against the United States and its allies to back off from Russia’s doorsteps while showing off their military power to change the world order. Russia has long confronted the Western military alliance with Ukraine, particularly Ukraine’s invitation to join NATO. Russia is afraid of NATO expansion further to the east and does not want its neighbor Ukraine to join this alliance that was set up in 1949 to counterbalance the Soviet Union. Tensions have been rising between the parties before.

In 2014 Russia annexed Crimea. In his speech, Putin mentions that NATO repeatedly ignored Russia’s demands of an equal power balance in Europe. Thus, by attacking Ukraine, Putin puts Russia back on the map as a powerful country that can and will do what it wants when it is not heard.

He further mentioned that any intervention from outside powers (by which the West is meant) to hinder Russia would be met by an immediate response and severe consequences. It also seems that Russia intends to emphasize that the West has made more mistakes in the past. Putin referred to the US and allies attack or “invasion” of Libya, Syria, and the invasion of Iraq. Again, this shows Putin is justifying his military invasion of Ukraine. His argument is: what you can do, we can do too.

Responses from the West

As the US and allies prepare to respond to the Russian military invasion, financial sanctions remain a vital option to avoid further military escalations. For President Biden, it’s going to be a tough sell to the American people given the fact that Americans are burned out of the longest US wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. While the American values and democracy will be on top of Presidents Biden’s agenda, a direct military engagement is not an option as that will lead ultimately lead to catastrophic consequences and possible World War III which will be the end of many of us with existing of nuclear nukes compared WW II.

Since Ukraine is not a member of the alliance, article 5 of the NATO Treaty states that an attack on one NATO country is an attack on the entire alliance. Article 4 of NATO discusses that “the parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the parties is threatened.” This article entails consultations between member states to reach an agreement and take action.

From a NATO standpoint, they cannot declare war, but allies can impose heavy economic sanctions to degrade Russia’s economy with intentions to decrease their military aggression. The United States and the European Union already announced these sanctions, restricting Russia’s access to certain financial accounts, the EU’s capital, and financial markets. However, these sanctions on Russia could also backfire, as the country is one of the main suppliers of the region’s gas. The prices of gas already went high in Europe – one direct impact of the war and the sanctions.

Prospects

It remains to be seen what will happen in the upcoming days. Until Putin’s demands are heard, he will continue to put pressure on the West by increasing military aggression in Ukraine.

History has shown many scenarios could unfold (for instance the implementation of UN safe zones and the break-up of Ukraine). In any case, it is important to not forget the humanitarian side of the conflict: The conflict will prompt Ukrainians to flee, could cause the displacement of millions of Ukrainians, and can lead to many civilian casualties. 

Vibeke Gootzen is a Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow at Rise to Peace

Ahmad Shah Mohibi is the founder of Rise to Peace

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Afghan evacuees
 by Rise to Peace

Afghan evacuees in UAE still wait to be resettled in US

Tens of thousands of Afghan evacuees at Emirates Humanitarian City (EHC) and the Tasameem Workers City (TWC) in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE), seeking answers from U.S. Government (USG) while in limbo.

Following the August 2021 collapse of the Afghanistan government and subsequent takeover by the Taliban, the U.S. military evacuated over 100,000 people from Afghanistan during the largest noncombatant evacuation operation (NEO) airlift in history. While tens of thousands of these evacuees were brought into the U.S., others are still in limbo in third countries.

During the NEO operation, the United Arab Emirates agreed to temporarily house an estimated “5000” evacuees in their Emirates Humanitarian City refugee camp while the U.S. could process their immigration cases. The USG evacuation was operating normally with 2-3 chartered flights from the UAE to the U.S. until November 07, 2021 where flights suspended. 

On February 09, 2021, evacuees protested “demanding” answers from the U.S. government which resulted in mass media coverage and eventually grabbed the attention of the US government officials. On February 15, 20 representatives of evacuees (10 women and 10 men) held a meeting with the U.S. State Department and UAE officials, it was announced that the evacuees had agreed to temporarily end their demonstrations to allow their cases to be processed.

Unlike other Afghan refugee camps in Ramstein Air Base in Germany and US army base in Qatar where evacuees have had relatively quick entry processes into the U.S., these individuals live in a state of fear and uncertainty as to their futures.

Evacuees have criticized the insufficient amount of personnel at the site to process and transfer them out of the camp. Additionally, individuals report that when they seek answers from U.S. Embassy staff about their transfer status, they are told a generic answer that lacks clarity. 

https://twitter.com/ahmadsmohibi/status/1491898712024625155?s=20&t=RSKn0nZPfrVhQzmDI-CrgA

This is not the first time Afghan evacuees have protested for U.S. resettlement. In November 2021, Rise to Peace reported an estimated 9,000 Afghan refugees were being housed in Abu Dhabi at the Emirates Humanitarian City refugee camp and demanding answers to their entry status.

Six later, these refugees, including many families, still do not see a clear future ahead of them. Their path to placement in the U.S. is ambiguous and they remain in bleak circumstances within the refugee camp. Some living in the camp have described conditions to be “prison-like”.

Beginning February 9, 2022, refugees in the facility began demonstrations, demanding transparency on their resettlement status. Photos are circling the internet of young children within the camp holding signs that read, “Move Us To The United States As Soon As Possible” and “I Don’t Want To Be Here For More Time”.

Many of these children have gone without any kind of education for the past six months, simply receiving the bare necessities while awaiting resettlement. After initially hoping for speedy entry into a new home country, many families worry for their children’s development. Additionally, there are widespread concerns about the mental health of those being housed in the camps.

One of the loudest concerns from the evacuees at the Emirates Humanitarian City is the uncertainty of when they will be processed and brought to the United States, most notably for those who have valid documents or family sponsorship. Many say they were working with U.S. diplomats and military before the Afghan government collapsed and now feel abandoned in their time of need.

Brynn Larimer, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

Ahmad Shah Mohibi, Founder of Rise to Peace Twitter: @ahmadsmohibi

in Afghanistan / Rise to Peace blog / United States 0 comments
Child Terrorism
 by Rise to Peace

An Overview of Child Terrorism in Syria

One crisis plaguing Syria is the issue and threat of child terrorism. Child terrorism is a reality many Syrian children must face by being born into a war-torn country. No human being is safe, no future is guaranteed, no child can live unscathed. Measures and organized efforts are flourishing and need to be supported and expanded internationally to address and combat child terrorism.

Child Terrorism and Children’s Rights

Terrorist groups are doing their best to teach children that America’s war on terrorism is an act of aggression. Children are particularly vulnerable to military conscription because they are easily manipulated and subjected to violence.

The Syrian Human Rights Network (SNHR) released its 10th annual report on the violation of the rights against Syrian children. According to a report, at least 29,661 children have been killed in Syria, and 5,036 children have been arrested or disappeared.

The Action Plan

U.S. relations with Syria began in 1944 and have since resulted in a long road of support and diplomatic correspondence. Syria has been included on the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism since its creation in 1979 due to its continued support of terrorism and terrorist groups, and its pursuit of weapons, missile programs and weapons of mass destruction. Moreover, Syria has continued its efforts to use and develop chemical weapons. Finally, Syria has continuously attempted to undermine U.S. and international efforts to stabilize Iraq and Syria.

Syria is exposed to legal sanctions, including export sanctions under the Syrian Liability Law, and are not eligible to support the U.S. or purchase U.S. military equipment. Following the outbreak of conflict in Syria in March 2011, a follow-up decree was issued against continued violence and human rights violations in Syria.

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) signed an Action Plan with the United Nations to prevent the recruitment or use of children under the age of 18. Through the Action Plan, “the SDF commits to end and prevent the recruitment and use of children, identify and separate boys and girls currently within its ranks, and put in place preventative, protection and disciplinary measures related to child recruitment.”

Ultimately, the United Nations dedicates an office to gathering information and reports on how and where children are affected by armed conflict. Additionally, the United Nations has identified six severe violations against children which include, “the recruitment and use of children; the killing and maiming of children; rape and other forms of sexual violence; abduction of children; attack on schools and hospitals; and the denial of humanitarian access.”

The New Child Rights Law

On August 15, 2021 Syrian President Bashar al-Assad introduced a new law, known as Law No. 21, which prohibits the trafficking of children, including child soldiers in Syria. Many organizations recruit children, including the Syrian government.

While the law appears to be an important step in the right direction, many groups, such as the Syrian Center for Accountability and Justice, are skeptical of the law’s actual ability to end the use of child soldiers by militants.

This new law was a crucial win for Syrian children that have been used as a tool and helping them avoid such dark and traumatizing experiences.

Outcomes

An urgent need for an effective solution to the root of the problem of child soldiers must be found. UNICEF is helping approximately 8,700 children released from military service around the world. These rehabilitation and poverty alleviation efforts enable the proper healing of trauma. UNICEF also provides special support to Syrian children through health care, education, and improved living conditions.

Overall, the Action Plan between Syria and the United Nations, as well as the new legislation for the prohibition of child trafficking are a few organized steps that will hopefully make a difference. A global effort is needed to establish peace in a war-torn country that has suffered a myriad of wounds for many years, and ultimately stop its use of child soldiers.

 

Katerina Rebecca Paraskeva, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

in Rise to Peace blog / Syria 0 comments
Syria
 by Rise to Peace

An Update on Syria: The Execution of an ISIS Leader and Prison Attacks

In recent news, U.S. efforts against the leader of ISIS, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi, resulted in his death via airstrike and was recently reported by the Head of the United Nations Office of Counter-Terrorism. Despite the death of the ISIS leader, the international community must remember the show of strength ISIL displayed this past January in north-east Syria when they attacked a prison.

The Attack and Collateral Damages 

ISIL’s prison attack occurred on January 20, 2022, lasting for a few days and greatly impacting Syria. The attack attempted to release fighters from al-Hasaka prison, highlighting the need to swiftly bring them to trial and hold ISIL fighters accountable. Ultimately, while the military is an effective tool to combat terrorism, it alone is not sufficient to address all of terrorism’s intricate facets.

Specifically, an example of immediate action stems from ISIS fighters attacking a Syrian prison, which housed some 3,000  fighters and 700 children. While this event was foreseeable, due to the nature of the target, attacks such as this can be minimized through urgent action amongst the entire international community to combat those suspected of being associated with extremist groups in Syria’s prisons and camps.  Deputy Secretary-General Vladimir Voronkov told the UN Security Council that the Islamic State group “emphasized and called for a break in prisons.”

The Result of an Overnight Raid

On early Thursday morning, February 3rd, U.S. President Biden said the ISIS leader, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Quraishi, was killed in an airstrike conducted by U.S. Special Forces in northwest Syria, killing at least 13 people in the raid. President Biden addressed the use of special forces to attack the ISIS leader, stating that the choice was a tactical decision to minimize civilian casualties, despite a greater risk to U.S. troops.

However, initial reports indicate that al-Quraish installed an explosive device in his apartment on the third floor of the building, which killing several people, according to President Biden and Pentagon officials.

While speaking in the Roosevelt Room of the White House, President Biden explained the story of the ISIS leader, saying that he had ordered a series of atrocities involving the Yezidi. “Thanks to the courage of our soldiers, this terrible terrorist leader no longer exists,” President Biden stated.

Overall, al-Quraish did not initially appear to be a major problem. Intelligence officials spotted him sometime last year while tracking a package in Syria. However, the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan in the midst of locating al-Quraish did not appear to be a major problem.

Current Situation and Outcomes

Undersecretary-General Voronkov of the U.N. Security Council urges states to repatriate suspected ISIS fighters and their families from prisons and concentration camps in northeastern Syria. “The repatriation of third country nationals from Syria and Iraq remains a major priority for the United Nations and we stand ready as a reliable partner to member states in responding to these challenges,” Voronkov said.

Although the United Nations has made tremendous progress against ISIS, the group continues to pose threats, so the United Nations must remain vigilant and active.

U.S. Forces are stationed in Syria as part of the United Nations, however, all countries must work with them in the fight against ISIS. In particular, countries should also support the United Nations Global Framework for Refugee Assistance in Syria and Iraq, which was launched in 2021.

While the Russian Federation representative said ISIS fighters raided al-Sina’aprison, ultimately, anyone responsible for the crimes against innocent Syrians should be held accountable. The United Nations and humanitarian partners must demand a full account of any civilian casualties. Syrian forces backed by Moscow will continue to search and attack terrorist groups in Syria.

For 2022, we should anticipate a response from the U.S. and a general, more drastic change of tactics from the previous ones. Now, it is the time to systematically focus and help solve Syria’s dramatic conditions and future threats.

 

Katerina Rebecca Paraskeva, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

in Rise to Peace blog / Syria 0 comments
Neo JMB
 by Rise to Peace

The Threat of Neo JMB in Bangladesh Since the 2016 Holey Artisan Attack

Attacks spread panic and chaos among civilians and law enforcement agencies. Following the 2016 attack at the Holey Artisan Café, security forces in Bangladesh established various counterterrorism and peacekeeping measures. Although there was a decline in terrorist attacks, the current trends and analysis of interactions with ISIL indicate that the Neo Jama’ Atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (Neo JMB) can launch an unprecedented terrorist attack.

Terrorist groups such as Neo JMB are leveraging social media platforms including Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube to spread misinformation and recruit members through radicalization and spreading fear. JMB seeks to replace Bangladesh’s system of governance with Sharia law and the Islamic model. There is a significant increase in domestic extremism and radicalization in Bangladesh through modern advanced technologies and social networks that could result in attacks in the future.

Funding and support from various individuals and organizations have ensured that terrorist organizations thrive despite efforts to eradicate the groups. Terror attacks negatively impact the lives of civilians and peacekeepers in the country. This analysis focuses on terrorism, extremism, and counterterrorism measures. In addition, it focuses on bringing peace among different groups of people with respect to gender, race, and religion.

Threat Analysis on Bangladesh

The Neo JMB claimed responsibility for the Holey Artisan Café terrorist attack in July 2016 in Dhaka. In addition, the group has natured a network of female jihadists. Several members of the military wing of the Neo JMB group were arrested in 2021 by various anti-terror organizations in Bangladesh. Following the attack in 2016, Security Forces (SF) have combated over 47 terrorists, including prominent group leaders.

Many youths in Bangladesh continue to resonate with the Islamist ideologies that claim to continue the fight to establish Caliphate. Videos released by ISIL in August 2019 urged support from Bangladesh to carry on the war by targeting the enemies around them, including political leaders, non-Muslim communities, and law enforcement agencies. Numerous arrests were made in Dhaka for Neo JMB members who had explosive devices and other weapons for conducting terrorism.

Following the recapture of Afghanistan by the Taliban may encourage Neo JMB in Bangladesh, resulting in a surge of militancy attacks on civilians and peacekeeping forces. The return of Jihadists from Afghan and Syria is equally a critical challenge to the authorities. In addition, the radicalization of youths in Bangladesh could result in unprecedented extremism and a resurgence of violence.

During crackdown and operations in 2021, Bangladesh security forces were experiencing heavy exchanges and discovering advanced ammunitions in possession of members of the Neo JMB group. They have arrested some members of the terror group who are experts in bomb manufacturing and possess explosive materials, remote controls, and manuals to produce weapons that could be used for mass destruction. Therefore, there is a high possibility that the group could be preparing to launch an attack in the future.

Despite ongoing joint counterterrorism efforts, the residue members of the terrorist organizations and continued radicalization cannot be ignored. According to intelligence sources, the parent JMB group was founded in 1998 and conducted synchronized blasts in August 2005, which injured over 100 people and claimed the lives of three. Although the organization went quiet later, the members of the initial organization are now operatives and a crucial part of military planning and radicalization for Neo JMB. For instance, Mohamed Enayet, arrested in 2006 with explosives, spread radicalization inside the Kashimpur jail.

Although security forces are trying their best to break structures and terror organizations, the group is advancing its recruitment methodologies through radicalization and extremism, internal communications, and preparing for attacks. In addition, Neo JMB is recruiting highly trained youths who combine the knowledge from different educational disciplines with advanced technology to overwhelm security forces and evade counterterrorism measures.

Recommendations

Multiple factors result in the violent extremism and radicalization of Neo JMB recruits. These include economic, political, religious, and social reasonings. Bangladesh can employ several strategies to minimize violent extremism by incorporating economic development, tolerance, and peacebuilding strategies.

Effective economic development models can address challenges that youths face. There is a need to reduce economic issues, including corruption, unemployment, and poverty. Early intervention safeguards young people from recruitment into terrorist groups. Additionally, the government has a role in countering individuals and organizations that finance terrorist groups through the Financial Intelligence Unit.

Also, the government must provide equal rights to minimize conflicts among social and religious groups. The government should use an inclusive economic development model that promotes development, tolerance, and diversity. The Bangladesh government must focus on better methods for gathering intelligence and changes in criminal justice systems.

Crackdowns on group members can disrupt the recruitment process, the radicalization of youths, and attacks from the Neo JMB. The government must pass legislation that secures the borders of Bangladesh. It is significant to ensure that returning fighters from Afghanistan, Syria, and other nations affected by violent extremism do not become agents of terror groups by providing technical and strategical aid to other terrorist organizations.

 

Aru Rongchitim Tisso, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

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Ukraine
 by Rise to Peace

Ukraine is Fearful of a Possible Attack: Emergency Call for Help

There is an urgent call for help in Ukraine as it has been under the constant threat of a possible attack.  Generally, too many unresolved issues have become highly complicated through the years. Currently, Russia is looming along the Ukrainian border, creating speculation of an imminent attack. Numerous terrorist threats have been made and, unfortunately, could not be dismantled or somehow settled. It appears terrorist threats are steadily increasing in Ukraine.

Ukraine’s Vulnerability Against Russia

Lately, Ukraine and its Western allies have watched Russia purposefully assemble forces in excess of 100,000 men on the border. In spite of the fact that he professes to have no expectation of attacking, President Vladimir Putin is tactically innovative.

Ultimately, President Putin is trying to prevent Ukraine from joining both NATO and the E.U. by displaying Russia’s power and strongarming the world to comply with his demands. One of President Putin’s strategies is to create tension between the U.S., its allies, and international organizations.  Also, Russia is attempting to undermine the U.S. and President Biden by highlighting the recent fallout of events in Afghanistan. Additionally, President Putin hopes to impress Chinese President Xi Jinping through his display of force.

Ultimately, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine did not begin overnight. Russia fears that Ukraine’s acceptance into NATO would undermine its political and cultural dominance in the region, and also belittle its power and authority in Ukraine.  Additionally, Russia fears that ethnic conflicts may arise once Ukraine joins NATO, resulting in harmful practices against the Russian-minority population in Ukraine.

The Upsurge of The Terrorist Excursion

Several attacks have aimed their sites on Ukrainian targets, resulting in the Ukrainian government’s recent announcement that it has impeded several premeditated assaults within its borders, such as a bombing in Kyiv. Currently, attacks have been focused against property, however, some fatalities have been reported.

While attacks have currently been aimed at Ukrainian targets, this could change in the future incidents focusing against differing targets.

In January, the Biden organization deduced that Russia was secretively planning assaults against its own rebel partners in eastern Ukraine. “The U.S. has information that indicates Russia prepositioned a group of operatives to conduct a false-flag operation in eastern Ukraine,” an authority told CNN. “The operatives are trained in urban warfare and in using explosives to carry out acts of sabotage against Russia’s own proxy forces,” an official told CNN.

Outcomes And Future Advice

In 2022, Russia has multiple types of attacks to choose from in which they have achieved success in the past.  One such tactic Russia could use is a raid, however this would require extensive manpower. Some experts predict that for Russia to conduct a successful raid, they would require at least 175,000 troops.

However, if Russia chooses to conduct a raid, they will need to consider the cost of other resources, besides just manpower. This attack style would require a significant number of guns, surface-to-surface missiles, and air strikes against both Ukrainian personnel and equipment, such as maritime vessels. For Ukraine to handle this mounting and tentative Russian threat, it is imperative they receive assistance from foreign allies to deter a potential ambush.

While Russia is well equipped for a physical confrontation with Ukraine, they may also be planning a cyberattack, similar to their attacks in 2014, possibly targeting Ukraine’s weapons, communications, and electric systems.

Ukraine is unquestionably the center of attention at the moment, as there is a strong possibility of an attack from Russia. There have been numerous terrorist threats and now more than ever lurks the danger for the entire country. The U.S. should be prepared to assist in the event that Russia does instigate an attack against Ukraine.

 

Katerina Rebecca Paraskeva, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

in Rise to Peace blog / Russia / Ukraine 0 comments
Refugees
 by Chris Ynclan Jr

Between a Rock and a Hard Place: Persistent Challenges Facing Afghan Refugees

With the eyes of the world fixated on the crisis in Ukraine, the dire situation in Afghanistan and the plight of Afghan refugees grows ever more critical. An unstable Afghanistan has created one of the worst humanitarian disasters in the world today. Moreover, inaction on the part of policymakers contributes to this and the deterioration of regional instability. For the appropriate stakeholders to make informed policy on these issues, they must understand the present conditions befalling the Afghan people within their nation and abroad.

Searching for Solace

In the pursuit of safety for their families, a significant number of Afghans fleeing from the Taliban regime have made a perilous trek across Iran into Turkey. However, several geopolitical developments have weakened the human security of Afghan refugees escaping the turmoil of Afghanistan. A contributing factor is a tightening of border security within Turkey due to the strain migration has had on its resources.

Even with added security, the most perilous stage of their journey has been crossing from Iran into Turkey. This has been made evident with the discovery of migrants who froze along the Turkish-Iranian border.

Refugees who have made it inside of Turkey still face many considerable challenges toward the establishment of new lives. Many who fled to Turkey did so without documentation as they were in fear of a return to a Taliban-led Afghanistan. Due to this, many face deportation in Turkey as well as Iran.

The COVID-19 pandemic is also magnifying the problems of the refugees as they are having trouble receiving adequate access to vaccines which are desperately needed.

Afghans who have made it to safety in the U.S. are met with hindrances to their security. One such issue they face is finding a direct pathway to permanent legal residency within the country. This problem has worsened by the backlog of applications preventing them from doing so. Another such issue preventing the settlement of refugees has been the lack of affordable housing throughout the United States. They have also faced difficulty in receiving the critical health care needed while waiting for resettlement.

Winter is Coming

Many Afghans have escaped Taliban rule, and geopolitical developments in the region have magnified their plight. When the Taliban took control of Afghanistan in 2021, they were met with the freezing of their funds belonging to the previous Ghani administration. As of late, many of the financial resources of the Taliban regime remain frozen by the Biden administration.

With more countries in the region having their resources strained by the influx of migrants, they have made a conscious effort to send aid to keep Afghans there without trying to guarantee their rights. Such an environment has allowed the Taliban to target the LGBT community within the country, depriving them of their most basic human rights.

How Policymakers Can Respond

Given the severity of the Afghans’ situation, it has become clear that there needs to be an intervention by relevant stakeholders to ensure their safety and security. The opening of financial resources and legal aid from multilateral institutions would greatly reduce the burden placed upon refugees. Without such aid, many Afghans face deportation back to a state which will dramatically compromise their security.

Nations with the ability to do so must increase efforts to ensure the human rights of Afghan citizens. States trying to formalize ties to the new Taliban government have done so with caution, but there remains uncertainty due to their citizens’ treatment and ideological fervor. Such actions breed resentment against the Taliban and create the opportunity for the cycle of violence to begin anew.

Therefore, it is imperative for human rights to be preserved within Afghanistan to show the rest of the region that they may help rebuild the war-torn society.

 

Christopher Ynclan Jr., Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

 

in Afghanistan / Rise to Peace blog 0 comments