Failed
 by Rise to Peace

Mitigating Failed Counter-Insurgency Operations in India

Recent cases of repeated failed military operations in northeastern India provoked many to question New Delhi’s approach in countering insurgency in the Northeast. Failed operations at Oting and Chasa had once again incited many to question the age-old use of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act in the region.

The Act, which gives excessive powers to the Indian armed forces, had once again come under scrutiny. This time, it’s not just the public but also senior military officials and intellectuals from the armed forces. What lies ahead is New Delhi’s much needed change of approach in countering insurgency in the Northeast: a systematic change with legislative and institutional reforms.

From a mainland perspective, northeastern India is seen as a region infested with insurgency and secessionist movements. However, what is often overlooked is that it is also a region which has been periled by militarization. Under the premise of national security and countering insurgency, numerous civilians succumbed to its fallacious approaches. The Armed Forces Special Powers Act of 1958 holds accountability for much of the fatality that the public had to been subjected to.

The Armed Forces Special Powers Act

The Armed Forces Special Powers Act, known as AFSPA, bears a nauseant undertone along with its dreaded powers conferred upon the armed forces. AFSPA, previously known as the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Ordinance was first enacted by the colonial British in 1942 to contain the Quit India Movement. Also, it was further adopted by Independent India in 1958 to suppress the armed struggle in the Northeast.

The AFSPA granted excessive powers to the Armed Forces which continue to be contested to this date. The special powers conferred upon the armed forces include licenses to kill, destroy, arrest without warrant, shoot based on mere suspicion, and impunity of trials.

M.G. Devasahayam, a retired IAS officer who also served in the Indian Army during the peak of insurgency in the Northeast noted that ‘while exercising such draconian powers, there is bound to be misuse’ and accordingly, it had been misused, with over 1,500 alleged extrajudicial killings by security forces in Manipur alone, the region continues to be tormented.

The justification needed to invoke the Act and confer such powers to the armed forces was highly reliant on the subjective understanding of the concerned head of the state, such that any area deemed as ‘disturbed’ would fall victim to the Act. Hence, with insurgency prevailing in the northeast region for decades, plagued civilians by such an Act as ‘draconian’ as AFSPA.

Cases from Oting and Chasa

The incident at Oting on the 4th of December, 2021, where fourteen civilians were killed by the armed forces adds to the civilian death count under AFSPA. At around 4 pm, the 21st Para Special Forces carried out an offense based on the intelligence they had received, unfortunately, resulting in the deaths of civilian coal miners instead of insurgents.

Various contestations circle around the event as to whether the Special Forces were in an attempt of a ‘fake-encounter,’ which the region is quite familiar with, or if it truly was a botched operation. However, evidence suggests its own answers, this is backed by survivor claims of indiscriminate firing and circulated footage of the armed forces attempting to change the attire of the victims. The incident was however, widely popularized as a case of ‘mistaken identity.’ Subsequently, various protests occurred in the following weeks. The issue of AFSPA was the central concern amid the various protests, and the repeal of the Act was echoed by both the public and politicians.

Of late, New Delhi has decided to partially uplift the Act from certain parts of the region, seven districts from Nagaland, 23 from Assam, and six from Manipur. However, Oting still remains under the Act. Over the past three years the ruling government has been able to resolve a number of insurgent issues in the region by signing several agreements with the insurgents, and the partial withdrawal is seemingly another victory for the party.

However, it is rather too early to celebrate, as with AFSPA, the partial withdrawal makes little to no difference. Given, the central issue concerning AFSPA is with its provisions which continue to be manipulated time and again.

One day after the Act was announced to be withdrawn, two civilians from the Chasa village were shot and injured. It was on the 2nd of April, 2022 when the 12th Para Special Forces carried out a failed operation, another case of ‘mistaken identity.’ Similar instance of indiscriminate firing were reported despite the victims shouting and claiming they were civilians. These repeated instances have unearthed major flaws in India’s national security measures, which require legislative reforms and structural changes in India’s security force deployments.

The Way Forward

Retired Lieutenant Gen H S Panag recommended that the deployment of the Indian Armed Forces is not a necessity to counter-insurgency in the region but is rather a role that needs to be taken by the Central Reserved Police Force (CRPF). He further suggested that the Act be repealed fully and replaced by a more humane act which can serve the interests of both the people and the state.

Accordingly, to reiterate Lt. Gen Panag’s recommendations, the insurgency issues in the Northeast can surely be contained by internal security forces, like the CRPF. Internal security problems can be addressed by internal security forces, which is something they are trained and specialized to do.

In cases of counter insurgency operations, forces accompanied by a commanding officer who is familiar with the topography, culture, and conditions of the region should be deployed so that operations can be carried out, keeping in mind the repercussions of the Act.

Henceforth, AFSPA should be fully repealed and a committee should be formed comprised of retired justices from the Supreme Court along with retired military officials and senior civil society members from the region. This committee would seek to draft an act that can effectively confer power to the armed forces, all the while safeguarding the rights of the people. In this way, ‘security’ in its real sense can be achieved.

 

Vetilo Venuh, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

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Leader
 by Rise to Peace

Who is the New Leader of ISIS?

In a prerecorded voice clip posted online, ISIS declared Abu al-Hassan al-Hashemi al-Quraishi as its new head. This announcement was made weeks after the death of Abu-Ibrahim Al-Hashimi Al-Qurayshi, back in March. Despite the fact that they have similar sounding names, they are not thought to be connected. The moniker “Al-Qurayshi” originated from the Quraish, the clan of Islam’s Prophet Muhammad, and is used as a component of an IS leader’s nom de guerre. The interim leader of ISIS is the brother of the deceased former caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, as announced via two Iraqi police sources and one Western security source.

The new leader’s background is shrouded in mystery, but he comes from a small group of secretive, combative Iraqi jihadists who surfaced amid the US invasion in 2003. So, despite the fact that little is known about him, one thing is certain, he knows the narrative and the roots of all roots. As a result, he risks becoming as vicious as his brother, Al-Baghdadi, who was unafraid to carry out assaults as part of a worldwide terrorism network. He may, however, be a strategic one, with responsibilities such as ISIS recruitment planning and strengthening.

According to Iraqi security personnel, the new leader’s real name is Juma Awad al-Badri. Badri is an extremist who embraced Salafi jihadist groups in 2003 and is believed to have preceded Baghdadi as a close associate and Islamic law consultant. According to the report by Iraqi officials, Badri has been the director of the Islamic State’s Central Committee for a significant period of time.  This leadership group directs strategy and determines inheritance when a leader is captured or killed. It simply signifies that, after lurking in the shadows for years, he is still capable of authorizing and assuredly leading a pack. On the other hand, Iraqi security authorities and analysts have stated that, even if Badri does not have the customary strong personality, he may still carry out assaults in the most likely manner.

The Cost of Decapitation

Terrorist organizations may be forced to reallocate resources away from operational planning and more towards support and safety as a result of decapitation. Leaders being killed and captured can increase anxiety among remaining or new terrorist organization leaders, as can deliberate efforts to uncover moles inside the organization and civilian informants, because they rely on complicated intelligence. The new leader will also need to take time to study the bureaucracy and hierarchy of the organization. Aside from that, their presence will fade away in a few moments as they must rely on their new leader’s new approach. Due to their constant shifts and augments, milder attacks may occur, such as direct assaults rather than explosions. Terrorists’ target choices may be shifted towards civilians or other innocent bystanders.

Thus, according to a study on the influence and efficiency of targeted killings and decapitation attacks, as well as the ISIS terrorist attack data examined in this context, Al-Qurayshi’s death may have limited short-term effects on ISIS’s functionality and victimization, but it is highly improbable to have long-term detrimental impacts.

Furthermore, ISIS’s ability to adapt is on par with its use of technology and social media. This gives the group more clout in recruiting new members and increasing its financial capabilities. Ultimately, the more a terrorist organization performs like a bureaucrat, the less likely it is to resist management changes and have smooth transitions. To summarize, it is preferable to be more inquisitive about this new leader and to regard him as a hard-threat rather than a soft-threat because, at the end of the day, he is and always will be competent at leading a team.

 

Kristian N. Rivera, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

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Incel
 by Rise to Peace

Black Pill Ideology: What is Incel Extremism?

A new report published last month by the U.S. Secret Service’s National Threat Assessment Center has detailed the growing terrorism threat from men who identify as “involuntary celibates” or “incels.” The report documents a growing trend in domestic terrorism involving the increasing threat of lone actors motivated by diverse amalgamations of extremist ideology.

Incel ideology is among these new forms of obscure extremist belief disrupting the traditional counter-terrorism typologies and frameworks operationalized by law enforcement and intelligence agencies.

What is an “Incel”?

According to the report, “the term ‘incel’ is often used to describe men who feel unable to obtain romantic or sexual relationships with woman, to which they feel entitled.” The label is particularly prominent in the “manosphere,” an online subculture encompassing various blogs, forums, and websites dedicated to men’s issues. The manosphere is home to various groups and ideologies: pick-up artists advancing various courtship strategies, men’s-right activists arguing for greater gender equality in family court settlements, and the Men Going Their Own Way movement that advocates for men to disassociate themselves from women.

“Although these groups are known to promote male-dominant views,” says the report, “some members express extreme ideologies involving anti-woman hate, sexual objectification of women, and calls for violence targeting women.”

According to Florence Keen, a researcher at King College London’s International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation, one of the largest online incel forums has 13,000 active members and roughly 200,000 threads. “The caveat I would always give is that we can’t say that the whole of the incel subculture is violence,” says Keen. “It really varies. Some will glorify violence while others will say ‘this is not what we are’”.

The term “involuntary celibacy” was coined in 1997 by a young female undergraduate at Canada’s Carleton University. It was used to entitle an online peer support forum for individuals struggling to find a sexual partner. Indeed, according to the Secret Service report, the forum was originally intended as a “non judgmental way for lonely people to identify as a group.”

The term grew in popularity and began to accompany a range of different forums. Over time, these forums bifurcated into two primary forms: one that provided a supportive and rehabilitative environment for romantically-alienated individuals, while another became increasingly militant and misogynistic.

According to researchers from the Council on Foreign Relations and Georgetown University, “as new incel forums proliferated on sites such as 4chan and Reddit, they also became more extreme: either ending or drowning out many of the previous discussions and debates about inceldom. A militant incel identity now began to coalesce with a demonstrably harder edge than before. The difference between the new lamentations and prior ones was the belief that those embracing the label ‘incel’ must act to take control of their lives and exact revenge for the dismissive and derogatory way they were treated.”

“The Black Pill”

According to the researchers, among the core beliefs of incel ideology is an understanding of society as a biologically stratified hierarchy wherein an individual’s place is determined primarily by physical characteristics.

According to this worldview, the top of this hierarchy includes idealized men and women, otherwise known as “Chads” and “Staceys”, the middle of this hierarchy includes so-called “normies”, and the bottom of this hierarchy includes the lowborn incels.

Incels believe that women are inherently shallow and make dating judgements based on superficial criteria largely involving physical appearance, such as height, weight, and race. Thus, according to incel ideology, men who do not conform to these physical ideals are cast aside in preference for men with the “right” features, regardless of personal integrity or character. Therefore, incels believe that a small number of “Chads” capture the majority of female attention, leaving incels sexually alienated and deprived of romantic interest.

Further, according to the researchers, incels distinguish themselves from Chads and normies “not just by their supposedly inferior physical appearance, but by their belief that they have gained privileged insights that normies do not see: that most women are attracted only to Chads, and that if one did not ‘win’ the genetic lottery, they are destined for mediocrity, social isolation, and abject loneliness.”

Incels perceive their isolation and sexual alienation as an inevitability of human mating patterns. They call this realization taking the “black pill”, a metaphor derived from the blue/red pill dichotomy of The Matrix, a science fiction film series in which individuals who take the blue pill choose to inhabit a world of illusion while those who take the red pill experience an awakening to the true nature of the world.

Within the manosphere, taking the “red pill” means awakening to the real nature of female mating preferences. According to the researchers, “it empowers those who take it to fully recognize the inherently shallow nature of woman, but also to understand better how men can manipulate and exploit these supposed female characteristics.”

The “black pill”, on the other hand, is totally nihilistic. “Taking [the black pill] means accepting a harsher reality than the red pill reveals,” say the researchers, “a reality where women and society are intrinsically biased against men who lack specific physical attributes, who therefore have no hope of ever being attractive to women or even accepted by society.”

Black pill ideology induces a powerful sense of permanent isolation and sexual marginalization for its adherents, a feeling of complete and inescapable romantic alienation rooted in female mating preferences. For incels, “it is women, then, who are responsible for their isolation and rejection,” say the researchers. “Women are therefore the primary targets of incels anger and violence.”

Online surveys of incels provide insight into the psychological core of this community. According to an October 2019 survey, 100% of respondents were male, 95% stated a belief in the “black pill”, and 85.5% were under the age of 30. While white males (56%) represented the largest ethnic subgroup, the user base included a diverse range of ethnic and racial backgrounds.

Over three quarters (77.5%) of incels have never experienced a sexual encounter, and 85% have never had a sexual relationship. An important psychological characteristic of the online incel community is the high prevalence of mental health issues: 24.6% report symptoms of autism, 27.9% report symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder, 47.8% report suicidal ideation, 59.6% report symptoms of anxiety, and 64.3% report symptoms of depression.

Is Incel Ideology Inherently Violent?

A recent report from the U.S. Secret Service details the rising threat from men who identify as incels. Indeed, the report states, “hatred of women, and the gender-based violence that is associated with it, requires increasing attention from everyone with a role in public safety.”

Indeed, over recent years, there have been a series of violent incel-related attacks. For example, the report describes a 2014 stabbing and killing spree that occurred near the University of California campus. The perpetrator, a 22-year-old, self-identified incel, killed six people, including three women who were shot outside a sorority house.

According to the report, “the attacker viewed these women as symbols of the type of women he was unable to attract.” Indeed, in a video posted to social media hours before the attack, he “recorded details of his hatred for women, his contempt for interracial couples, and his plans for retribution.”

Another incident involved a shooting that occurred in Plymouth, United Kingdom, in August 2021. The perpetrator, a 22-year-old male, shot and killed five people. The killer had uploaded videos to YouTube which included references to “inceldom” and the black pill worldview. He expressed misogynist and homophobic views and broadcast his hostility and contempt across online forums.

The killer’s mother, who was among his victims, had reportedly began to argue with her son over his views on women in the months before the attack. According to a neighbor, “[they] used to be close … but then his views changed and he went against women and he became a misogynist. They clashed a lot about that.”

However, the extent to which these attackers represent the broader incel community is far from clear. Indeed, the incel community is characterized by considerably broader ideological diversity than is usually portrayed in popular media. For example, studies suggest that the most hateful content is posted by a small minority of users. One investigation revealed that the strongest vitriol came from just 10% of the user base, suggesting the presence of different subgroups within the incel community, including a small, yet very active, element characterized by a pronounced sense of bitterness and anger.

Further, research indicates that incels describe various reasons for their participation in online forums. 74.6% reported that their participation made them “feel understood,” 69.9% said that it gave them “a sense of belonging,” 58.1% described how it made them “feel less lonely.”

Indeed, there is dissensus among security experts as to whether incel-related violence should be classified as a domestic terrorism threat. For example, speaking at the Global Counter Terror Summit in 2021, Assistant Chief Constable Tim Jaques, the U.K.’s deputy senior national coordinator for counter-terrorism policing stated that the Plymouth shooting earlier that year was not a terrorist attack.

“Incel in and of itself is not a terrorist ideology,” said Mr. Jaques. “The attack in Plymouth wasn’t driven by an ideology, albeit that individual was engaged in some kind of incel thinking. That doesn’t make him a terrorist … Ultimately the investigation found it was not anything to do with ideology, it’s not planned, it’s not done with forethought.”

Moreover, misogynistic violence is certainly not a new phenomenon. In 1989, a 25-year-old male orchestrated the École Polytechnique massacre, also known as the Montreal massacre, an anti-feminist mass shooting at an engineering school that left fourteen women murdered. In a suicide letter found in his pocket after the attack, the killer attacked feminism and raged against social changes that “retain the advantages of being women … while trying to grab those of the men.”

However, incel ideology is increasingly identified as an expanding national security concern among security officials and the intelligence community. An annual report published in 2020 by the Canadian Security Intelligence Service, one of Canada’s foremost counter-terrorism agencies, drew attention to “gender-driven violence” as a developing trend in violent extremism.

Further, a January 2020 review from the Texas Department of Public Safety stated: “Once viewed as a criminal threat by many law enforcement agencies, Incels are now seen as a growing domestic terrorism concern due to the ideological nature of recent Incel attacks internationally, nationwide, and in Texas … The violence demonstrated by Incels in the past decade, coupled with extremely violent online rhetoric, suggests this particular trend could soon match, or potentially eclipse, the level of lethalness demonstrated by other domestic terrorism types.”

Indeed, according to Zack Beachamp, a senior correspondent at Vox who specializes in ideology and identity, “only a tiny percentage of incels seem willing to turn to violence or terrorism, and the movement isn’t a threat on the level of an al-Qaeda or ISIS. But it’s a new kind of danger, a testament to the power of online communities to radicalize frustrated young men based on their most personal and painful grievances.”

Countering Incel Ideology and Violence

Current counter-terrorism frameworks are ill-adapted to the non-traditional threats emerging across the domestic security landscape, including incel extremism. These models, developed during the War on Terror, were built to combat the strong hierarchical command structures typical of global terrorist organizations.

“This model is outdated to represent the contemporary threat landscape”, says Eviane Leidig, a research fellow at the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism’s Current and Emerging Threats programme.

Counter-terrorism efforts to combat violent incel extremism, and indeed other forms of militant ideology, should form part of a broader, more comprehensive, domestic strategy that can effectively identify and intercept the early phases of radicalization.

Community initiatives should be central to this strategy. According to researchers, “the incel movement is particularly dangerous because of its accessibility: incel radicalization takes genuine pain and searing loneliness and converts it into hatred, anger, and violence.” Thus, intervention strategies should target the early stages of suffering and isolation.

Indeed, according to Moonshot CVE, a countering violent extremism enterprise, “the incel ecosystem thrives – even depends – on the social isolation of its online spaces. It is therefore critical, both for its members and for public safety, that we work together to bridge the online-offline gap by getting incels the help and support they so desperately and self-evidently need.”

Fundamentally, there is nothing criminal about the formation of online support groups for individuals struggling to find romance. The danger emerges when these groups become host to violent, hate-fueled vitriol directed at women. Thus, according to researchers, the most effective way to prevent incel terrorism is “to undermine incel ideology in the first place through rehabilitation and insulation from new extremist blandishment.” Indeed, governments and the private sector must work together to address the spread of violent rhetoric online while also protecting free speech laws.

Perhaps most importantly, mental health resources for young men must be strengthened and expanded. Mental illnesses such as depression and anxiety are a prominent feature of online incel communities. Indeed, almost all incel-related attacks have been a successful or attempted murder-suicide. According to researchers, “arguably, the most effective way to prevent an incel from [perpetrating a violent attack] is by proactively addressing his suicidal impulses.”

These counter-terrorism recommendations apply not just to efforts directed at the extreme fringes of the incel community, but also their counterparts in far-right or Islamist circles. Indeed, all of these fringes recruit and mobilize support online, exploit personal vulnerabilities as part of their radicalization efforts, and glorify perpetrators of lone actor terrorist attacks.

Community-based, early intervention strategies and accessible mental health services are vital components of an effective, domestic counter-terrorism effort. Governments, the private sector, and civil society must work together to support vulnerable individuals and communities, and to undermine the allure of extremist narratives that drive violent action.

Incel extremism represents just one part of an emerging domestic security threat driven by non-traditional, “salad-bar” ideologies that draw from multiple, sometimes contradictory, streams of violent thought. Countering this threat will require an evolution of domestic counter-terrorism strategies involving expanded mental health support and early intervention community-based initiatives.

 

Oliver Alexander Crisp, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

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War Crimes
 by Rise to Peace

Evidence of Russian War Crimes Emerge Outside Kyiv

In recent weeks, Russia has begun pulling troops from Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, and the surrounding areas as they focus their offensive to the East. It is apparent that Donbas, a region in Eastern Ukraine, as well as coastal areas of Ukraine are the next Russian targets.

War Crimes and Human Rights Violations

A number of possible war crimes and human rights violations have been documented following the Russian retreat of Bucha, a town just outside of Kyiv. Ominous images emerging out of Bucha include the bodies of slain civilians throughout the city streets, mass grave sites including women and children, as well as evidence of execution style killings and sexual assault.

https://twitter.com/SimonOstrovsky/status/1510643743078166531

Responses From World Leaders

Russia has responded to these emerging images and corroborated stories by claiming the evidence against them is forged. Statements from Russian officials blame Western media outlets and Ukraine, calling the allegations of human rights violations “propaganda.” Meanwhile, world leaders have called for the investigation of Russian war crimes. United States President Joe Biden called Russian President Vladimir Putin a war criminal and demanded accountability. Additionally, numerous European leaders have condemned the inhumanity coming out of Bucha.

The President of the European Union, Ursula von der Leyen, who has been vocal about supporting the possibility of Ukraine joining the EU, spoke on the phone with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, promising to document the war crimes in Bucha. In a surprising move, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson, visited Kyiv to meet with President Zelenskyy in a powerful show of support.

Zelenskyy has remained in Kyiv and has indicated he continues to be open to diplomatic peace talks with Russia. His requests for more military aid from the U.S. and EU continue to persist.

Action from the United Nations

In response, the United Nations held a successful vote to suspend Russia from the UN Human Rights Council. Suspensions are very rare, and it sends an impactful political message that the documented atrocities in Ukraine will not be ignored on the global stage.

 

Brynn Larimer, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

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Suicide Bombing
 by Rise to Peace

The Logic of Suicide Bombing: A Terrorist’s Powerful Tactic

The first recorded suicide bombing occurred in Russia on March 13, 1881. Ignaty Grinevitsky, a member of the People’s Will left-wing terrorist group, rushed towards his target Tsar Alexander II and dropped a bomb at the Tsar’s feet, killing them both. But the explosive device was not strapped around his stomach, his legs, or hidden in any part of his body, not unlike the usual tactic that prominent terrorist groups use nowadays. The night before the attack, Grinevitsky had written, “I shall not live one day, one hour in the bright season of our triumphs, but I believe that with my death I shall do all that it is my duty to do.”

The first and largest suicide bombings, however, are thought to have occurred on October 23, 1983, when a vehicle carrying 2,000 pounds of explosives was driven into a U.S. Marine base in Lebanon. The bomber, along with 241 military personnel, died unexpectedly. Seconds later, another bomber targeted the headquarters building of French commandos, killing an additional 58 people.

It was later determined that the bombing was carried out by Iranian-backed Shia militant organizations, which later became Hezbollah, the infamous violent terrorist group. In the 1980s, Hezbollah was responsible for a series of roughly 20 suicide assaults against Israeli and Lebanese soldiers. Due to this series of attacks, it gradually inspired other terrorist groups to use this tactic as a result of successful propaganda, imposition of threat, and massive media coverage. Hezbollah played an important role in the tactics then used by other terrorist groups in today’s day and age.

The United States has made significant progress since then in countering such attacks. Anti-ram perimeter walls, passive and active vehicle barriers, parking standoffs for screening cars, and window coverings such as polycarbonate, durable film, and locking devices have all been deployed by the Department of State to protect U.S. facilities overseas.

Since 1983, insurgency groups from Sri Lanka to Chechnya to Afghanistan have used suicide bombing as a favorite strategy. One indicator of this expanding predilection is the number of attacks, which increased from one in 1981 to more than 500 in 2007. This has become a significant and more powerful technique, particularly for ISIS and Al-Qaeda. Nonetheless, since 2003, suicide bombings have just about exclusively been perpetrated by Islamic groups.

A Martyr and a Suicide Bomber

A religious martyr, according to the conventional definition, is someone who is executed for their religious views, such as Saint Euphemia, who was martyred in AD 303 for refusing to forsake Christianity and participating in Ares sacrifices. Each of these individuals voluntarily died as a result of their refusal to renounce their faith in the face of torture, torment, or the prospect of death. When viewed through the lens of choice theory (utility), the martyr chooses to hold on to their principles and beliefs, implying that their functional form must be such that the advantage of holding on to their convictions outweighs the value they place on their own life. So, how is martyrdom interpreted by Islamic groups and why do they use this term?

Both phrases are used interchangeably, especially among Islamic groups. Explicitly put, a suicide bomber thinks that if they follow their religious beliefs to the fullest, they will be granted infinite utility, a place in heaven, and a great degree of pride in their afterlife. A martyr, on the other hand, may expect a good life after death as a result of their devotion and determination to stand for their religious beliefs. Unlike Islamic groups, they do not seek to inflict or cause death on others. A martyr is willing to die while preserving their faith, whereas a suicide bomber accepts death while believing that the more harm they wreak, the more they will be honored by God in the afterlife.

The choice is the actual distinction between the two. The martyr is forced to choose between life and death, with the probable inclination to survive, whereas the suicide bomber chooses to willfully end their own life and murder as many others as possible from a position of relative safety. The final aspect of this decision is what distinguishes suicide bombers from others: the desire to cause the deaths of others as part of their very own end-of-life decision.

The phrase “Allahu Akbar” is shouted by a suicide bomber before he detonates himself. It is both disheartening and enraging that terrorists have tainted our sacred language in a way that leaves those who aren’t Muslim terrified of common, beautiful phrases like “Allahu Akbar,” which simply means “God is the greatest,” no different than the use of “praise God” by Christians,” Rabia Chaudry said, a Pakistani-American attorney. It is saddening that the term that was previously said during Muslim celebrations can now be associated with an evil act.

How Effective is Suicide Bombing?

To begin with, the findings strongly suggest that a suicide bomber does not require extensive training to carry out the crime. Second, a suicide bomber may easily blend in with the crowd, and third, an explosive device does not cost a terrorist cell a hundred dollars; in fact, they can construct their own bombs using materials found in their barracks. Furthermore, suicide bombings can result in large casualties with little to no effort on the part of the perpetrators.

Terrorists are deadly, adaptable, and resourceful. A bomb-wielding individual is significantly more dangerous and difficult to resist than a timed device set to detonate in a public place. This human weapons system may make last-minute adjustments based on the ease of approach, the number of individuals present, and the security systems in place.

Despite two years of declining civilian losses from suicide strikes, the number of civilians killed in suicide bombings in Afghanistan increased in 2021. Afghanistan remained the country most affected by suicide attacks, accounting for 65% of all civilian deaths caused by suicide attacks worldwide. According to AOAV data, there have been 13,652 recorded suicide bomb assaults throughout history: four in Tsarist Russia, seven in China prior to WWII, 7,465 by Japan throughout WWII, 5,430 between 1974 and 2016, and 746 in 2017 and 2021.

Conclusion: Countering Suicide Attacks

To counter and deter suicide bombing incidents, Western policies must recognize the diversity of Islam, Islamism, and Jihadism, and even the ensuing internal conflict in the Islamic world over whose narrative will prevail. In order to suppress the extreme challenge, the West must support the moderate portions of this varied group.

Also, increasing surveillance operations to study people who have a history of committing suicide attacks and understanding their networks, such as friends, families, and peers. It’s also a roadblock to developing policy recommendations for stores or shops where terrorists might readily purchase materials to make an improvised explosive device.

The underlying issues that give rise to terrorist attacks must be addressed concurrently in order to decrease the incentive for such acts throughout the long run. National inter-service and collaborative international partnerships are key components of a comprehensive plan to combat suicide terrorism that should be implemented simultaneously.

Intelligence plays a critical role in averting acts of suicide terrorism from occurring in the first place. When major events occur, security briefs and digital reports should be created, especially in nations with limited resources and security agencies. Remember that a suicide bomber’s goal is to cause the highest degree of destruction possible.

Also, security officials should consider advancing social media strategies and using it as a tool to promote safety, security, and peace. Considering that social media has been rampant and successful tool for terrorist groups in recruiting members, counterterrorism efforts should also capitalize on this resource. For example, government agencies, think-tanks, and counterterrorism-oriented organizations must also continue creating symposiums, webinars, and trainings for the public, to inspire and inform people on effective strategies to combat terrorism. Ultimately, to keep up with the advancements of terrorist strategies, authorities and social media platforms must modify their counter-terrorism measures to address these foreseen issues.

 

Kristian N. Rivera, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

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Ring Road
 by Rise to Peace

Afghanistan’s Ring Road: Challenges and Failures in its Improvement

The Ring Road in Afghanistan begins at the capital of Kabul and continues to its second-largest city, Kandahar. The focal point of the U.S. plan was to improve Afghanistan following the invasion in 2001. However, the damages exceed $200 million to repair the road, and many lives were lost protecting it. The highway from Kabul to Kandahar is severely damaged.  In 2016, a comprehensive report revealed that the Ring Road was impossible to repair, and it would need to be rebuilt. If the Ring Road became inaccessible and unusable, the state administration would collapse.   The U.S. determined to change that by helping improve the Ring Road.

The Ring Road

The Soviet Union partially developed the Ring Road during the 1960s; however, war has degraded it over the years. Beginning with the Kabul to Kandahar Highway, the U.S. and many other nations committed $1.5 billion to rebuild the Ring Road, which would operate in a 3,200-kilometer loop. The Ring Road links Afghanistan’s four major cities which include Kabul, Kandahar, Herat, and Mazar-I-Sharif. Linking communities together via the Ring Road established a sense of community and allowed enterprise and hope to increase within Afghanistan thereby decreasing Taliban influence.

The Ring Road also enabled the U.S. and NATO military establishment to send armed forces and supplies quicker throughout the country, thus keeping the Taliban controlled. In 2003, the focus of the U.S. shifted from Afghanistan to the war in Iraq. As a result, financial support for the Ring Road Highway was decreased by $1.2 billion; and Taliban activity increased from 2004 to 2009 with roadside bombings, ambushes, and other displays of strength resulting in the Taliban regaining control of substantial key territories.

Former President Obama’s Plans for the War

In 2009. former President Barack Obama determined to recommit to the war in Afghanistan and he sent large numbers of troops in an effort named The Surge. The U.S. and NATO had achieved progress in the southern area. It became evident that the Taliban could not be gradually defeated. A number of troops were deployed to Afghanistan, and the Taliban increasingly carried out attacks.

Repair to the Ring Road were next to impossible due to the increased attacks by the Taliban. The construction company deemed this job the most dangerous one of all time 21 fatalities, 51 injured, and four missing. The construction enterprises were forced to employ security escalating their budget. The road from Khost to Pakitia cost nearly $5 million per mile for security purposes.

President Obama’s Decisions

President Obama had declared to bring armed forces back home. Despite the fact that the U.S. armed forces withdrew, Afghanistan was left with supervision of infrastructure plans, in addition to the roads. The United States Agency for International Development reduced the budget to rebuild the roads, and the Ring Road was neglected in 2012.

Road development and maintenance turned out to be the responsibility of the Afghan administration that was crippled by corruption. Many professionals projected several billions of dollars were lost to corruption in Afghanistan. In 2015, with approximately 11,000 U.S. armed forces, mostly in the major cities, the Taliban was swept back in Afghanistan. This involves substantial portions of the Ring Road and was among the leading causes why the road is in terrible shape. In a 2016 inspection report, the roads were 20% destroyed and the remainder were deteriorated.

President Trump’s Decisions

The U.S. has no plans to rebuild Afghanistan. In 2017, President Trump dedicated more armed forces but clearly expressed that the U.S. is not proposing construction again. During the government meeting, President Ghani mandated that the missing parts be built in the future months, highlighting the seriousness of the road for Afghanistan’s trade and economy. The State, USAID, and DOD require to implement on a regular basis the impact assessments to measure the effects of contracted reconstruction and other foreign support programs, including sectors of security assistance.

 

Mildred Miranda, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

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Pakistan
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ISIS Claims Responsibility for the Suicide Bombing in Pakistan

According to security officials, a suicide explosion occurred on March 4th during prayer services at a Shia Muslim Mosque in the northern Pakistani city of Peshawar, killing at least 58 people and injuring almost 200 others. On a side note, while terrorism in Pakistan has decreased in the past few years, the underlying foundations of extremism, such as Al-Qaeda and ISIS, remain active. Pakistan had 319 terrorism-related incidents in 2020, according to the South Asia Terrorism Portal, with 169 civilian casualties. This is down from roughly 4,000 such instances in 2013, which resulted in over 2,700 civilian deaths. Will this recent attack serve as a major blow in the next few months in Pakistan?

The Islamic State claimed responsibility for the blast in a statement on Friday, making it one of the group’s largest operations within Pakistan. When police stopped an armed man on a motorcycle near the mosque, he opened fire before forcing his way inside a congested hall and detonating his suicide vest, according to senior police official Haroon Rasheed. As specified by Moazzam Jah Ansari, the chief police commander for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, where Peshawar is the capital, the assailant had attached a strong explosive charge to his body, containing 5 kg (12 lbs.) of explosives.

Several of the injured, according to Asim Khan, a spokeswoman for Peshawar’s Lady Reading hospital, were in serious condition. Hundreds of people were hurt by shrapnel, several had their legs amputated, and others were hit by flying debris. Doctors struggled to transport the injured into operating rooms at the hospital’s emergency department, which was chaotic. Hundreds of families gathered outside the emergency room, many of whom were sobbing and shaking their heads, desperate for information on their family members.

Shia Muslims as ISIS Targets

When reviewing the actual circumstances of earlier attacks, it is evident that ISIS, an extreme Sunni militant group, has long targeted Shia Muslims in Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq, Iran, and now Pakistan, and has a particular interest in the Hazara ethnic minority, which is primarily Shia. Pakistan is predominantly Sunni, with 76 percent of Pakistanis identifying as Sunni and 10–15 percent of Shia, based on a 2010 estimate.

ISIS issued a statement in 2021 claiming that it would assault Shia in their homes and centers “by any means conceivable,” from “slaughtering their necks to distributing their limbs.” Murder and other inhumane acts inflicting severe pain are alleged crimes against humanity committed by ISIS. According to the group’s public statements, the violent attacks are clearly part of a determined policy.

Until recently, there was no animosity between Sunni and Shi’a religious organizations. The origins of terrorist attacks against Shi’a in Pakistan may be traced back to General Zia-ul-dictatorship Haq’s, which began in 1978 after a military takeover the previous year and lasted until his death in 1988. Following the 1979 Iranian revolution, many majority Sunni states, including Pakistan, began to be concerned about the spread of Shi’a Islam. To counter this, Zia bolstered ties with Saudi Arabia and welcomed Wahhabism, a hardline interpretation of Sunni Islam.

In 2011, extreme Sunni militants published an open letter to Quetta’s Shi’a community, which is mostly Hazara, declaring that “all Shi’a are deserving of killing” and that they intend to “create a Pakistan graveyard.” These words were supplemented by a methodical wave of terror directed at Shi’a professionals, officials, and visitors traveling to and from holy places and festivals in Pakistan. Militant groups have continued to target Shi’a professionals to this day, and all of these assaults have indeed been particularly violent in recent times. Militants and terrorist organizations have destroyed social gatherings and thickly urbanized Shi’a neighborhoods with reckless abandon.

A Weak Government is a Weak Defense Force

Vulnerability in the Pakistani government has impacted the lives of the minorities, such as schooling and career opportunities. This insecurity presents itself along gender lines as well, with Hazara women’s mobility being severely limited. As ISIS gains momentum, attacks on minorities will undoubtedly become more cautious in the coming months. To state the obvious, Pakistan has poor governance, allowing extremist organizations to carry out minor to major attacks in regions and cities. Pakistan’s administration lacks transparency and accountability. Political instability and corruption are also present, and the Pakistani government’s ongoing struggles will not be enough to silence ISIS, which will continue to grow in strength.

Developing investigation protocols and the use of corroborating analysis in the formulation of terrorism cases would be extremely beneficial in combating this expanding threat. Improving state and cross coordination on intelligence, police, and counter-terrorism divisions in Pakistan, as well as strengthening capacity on terrorism-related situation plans and promoting greater judicial legitimacy and human rights for minorities, are all crucial. Regardless of the support given by other countries to counter threats in Pakistan, it would be useless if the internal system of their government was compromised.

 

Kristian N. Rivera, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

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India
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Insurgency in India’s Northeastern Frontiers

The far northeastern frontier of India is infamous for insurgent activities which have been functioning for decades. The region is notorious for hoarding numerous insurgent outfits. With 13 active insurgent groups in Manipur alone, and with over 14 factions within the National Socialist Council of Nagalim (NSCN) in Nagaland, violent faceoffs between the Indian Armed Forces (IAF) and insurgents are frequent. Hence, the region has been marred as a sensitive location for India’s national security.

The region serves as a strategic geopolitical location for India and its neighboring countries, such as China, and has continued to serve as a strategic gateway for insurgents to carry out their activities. Accordingly, the IAF had been tackling not only the insurgents, but the Chinese troops as well, the Doklam incident is one of such encounters. In addition, the insurgents have operated between countries such as Myanmar, Bangladesh, and others, by setting up camps, hideouts and training centers.

Coupled with cross-border insurgencies and China’s geopolitical interest in the region, India’s national security measures were intensified by maximizing military presence and enacting stringent laws throughout the region. However, insurgent activities continue to thrive despite the counteractive measures taken by the Indian government.

Northeast Insurgency and China’s Impact

On November 13th, 2021, Colonel Viplav Tripathi, his wife, their six-year-old son, and four other personnel were murdered by insurgents from the Northeast. Manipur’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the Manipur Naga People’s Front (MNPF) took responsibility for the attack.

The attack was linked to smuggling cases in Mizoram where Colonel Tripathi had been in command and was curtailing the insurgents from carrying out their activities; this was likely the motivating factor leading the insurgents to assassinate Colonel Tripathi.

All the while, China had been accused of backing the insurgent groups since the responsible militants were suspected to have had connections with the Chinese PLA. This is supported by past instances where certain militants were apprehended and admitted to their connections with the Chinese.

China has frequently been accused of training and arming the insurgent groups in the Northeast. This goes as far back as the preformation of the NSCN, when the Naga homeland movement was sustained and led by the Naga National Council through the Naga Home Guards. The medelling of the Chinese in India’s internal affairs has been an age-old concern for India ever since the Sino-Indian war took place in 1962.

Recently, reports have indicated that China still has close ties with the NSCN and other regional groups by providing arms and ammunitions. This continues amid the ongoing peace talks between the insurgents, namely the NSCN-IM, which is one of the most prominent groups amongst the insurgents in the region.

Conclusion and Recommendations

India’s northeastern frontiers are often viewed as a ‘gateway’ to Southeast Asia; however, with the ongoing insurgency and the tense Sino-Indian relations developmental prospects are often curtailed. Hence, it demands India’s persistent effort in paving the path towards bridging not only India, but also the rest of the global south with Southeast Asia. This, however, needs to be done through India’s adherent commitment and consistent effort towards the Naga political dialogue.

This can occur by addressing the political will of the insurgents and by bringing all of the insurgent groups under one unified umbrella. Given, that the Northeast’s insurgency is political in nature, accordingly, it should be addressed in a political manner. By which, the approach should encompass less use of force and stringent laws such as AFSPA and more developmental approaches and peaceful mediation with the insurgents.

If the insurgency can be addressed and a political solution can be met, New Delhi can gain the confidence of the people from the region. This can further secure India of its border tensions with China by actually affirming its territorial integrity through the voice of the people.

 

Vetilo Venuh, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

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ELN
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The Rise of Urban Terrorism in Colombia? ELN Involvement in Citizen Protests

During the last few years, there have been multiple protests in Colombia against the government. Thousands of people have taken to the streets to protest against issues such as tax reforms, government management, and police performance. However, although the ability to protest is a legitimate right, there have also been events that have affected security conditions in the country.  Colombian authorities have indicated that the National Liberation Army (ELN), one of the oldest terrorist groups in the country, is likely participating in the protests.

The Protests

Colombia had serious episodes of protests and riots throughout 2019, 2020, and 2021. Their objectives and motives were distinct, but they shared in their international recognition for their levels of violence and destruction.

The first major protest during the government of President Iván Duque was the national strike of November 21, also known as 21N. Some of the reasons that led to these protests included economic proposals, such as eliminating the state pension fund Colpensiones and increasing the retirement age. Also, protesters demanded more investment in public education, combating corruption in several universities, effective protection measures for indigenous and social leaders, as many have been assassinated, and the full implementation of the peace agreement with the FARC, which was reached in 2016. The protests lasted until the beginning of 2020 and left approximately 769 people injured, more than 100 arrested, and six dead.

The next major series of protests in Colombia were those against the death of Javier Ordoñez in September 2020. The main reason for the protest was the murder of Javier Ordoñez by members of the national police in Bogota. Throughout September, there were clashes between protesters and police and multiple burnings of police stations, known as CAI. The protests resulted in 13 deaths, 72 CAI affected, and 581 injured, 75 of which were the result of firearms.

Finally, the most recent wave of protests occurred in April 2021 and was labeled the National Strike. These protests were primarily against a tax reform promoted by the government. The protests were characterized by their levels of violence and destruction. In fact, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), between April 28 and July 31, reports attributed 63 deaths to the protests. To date, the UN has verified 46 deaths, of which 44 were civilians and two were police; 76% of victims died from gunshot wounds.

The Infiltration of the ELN

Colombian authorities have indicated that there is a high possibility that ELN militants infiltrated the protests to destabilize the country, attack members of the security forces, and cause damage to private and public property.

According to the Colombian Ministry of Defense, the protests against police brutality in September 2020 were infiltrated by the ELN and other terrorist groups. The then Minister of Defense, Carlos Holmes Trujillo, stated that the acts of violence were systematic and aimed at destroying public property and citizen infrastructure dedicated towards security.

A few days after the Defense Ministry’s statements, the ELN acknowledged its participation in the protests against police brutality. Through a video on social networks, alias “Uriel,” an ELN leader, stated that the group sought to “put an end to the torture and death centers called CAI (Immediate Action Commandos) of the police”; also that the ELN’s urban militancy actively participates in protests and incites the use of homemade explosive devices.

ELN involvement in protests was also registered in the 2021 National Strike. In June 2021, ELN member alias “Fabian” was captured and storage devices were seized. The devices contained instructions from the ELN central command to inspire acts of vandalism, instructions to attack the police, and money transfer orders for individuals to attack security forces.

Eventually, the Colombian Ministry of Defense indicated that the ELN and FARC dissidents continue to act with the intention of financing violent and criminal activities, including vandalism and violence across Cali and Bogota. Also, reports indicate a potential presence of ELN members at the anti-government protests on July 20th, 2021.

Finally, in 2021 the Colombian National Police found evidence that the ELN had given protesters $70 million to organize attacks against the police and execute riots.

Urban Terrorism: A Challenge that Must be Addressed

The evidence that the ELN was involved in the protests in Colombia seems conclusive. Financing, infiltration of riots, incitement to cause destruction, and the distribution of propaganda are just some of the actions carried out by the ELN.

The ELN’s actions are of particular relevance as they demonstrate the existence of a challenge for the country’s authorities: urban terrorism that can be executed in Colombia’s main cities.

This modality of terrorism is particularly dangerous for the security of cities due to its characteristics. Urban terrorism can be carried out by a small number of people, its perpetrators can camouflage themselves among other demonstrators, it causes great damage to security forces for a low cost, and terrorists can use their propaganda to legitimize it because it occurs within citizen protests.

For this reason, it is necessary that Colombia, and other countries in the region with similar situations, strengthen their intelligence, terrorist identification, terrorist financing, and anti-riot capabilities to mitigate the risk posed by the presence of guerrillas and terrorist groups acting within citizen protests. State action must protect the lives of demonstrators, and public and private property, and avoid the deterioration of security conditions across the country.

 

Daniel Felipe Ruiz Rozo, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

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Russia
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What is Russia Really Thinking?

Since President Putin launched his attack on Ukraine, Russia has faced a considerable Western backlash. Disconnected from the global financial system and targeted by a sweeping range of economic sanctions, Russia has been set on a path to economic meltdown.

Over 400 companies have withdrawn from the country, the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project has been canceled, and over ten 10 years worth of economic gains are on course to be wiped out. With the ruble collapsing, GDP plummeting, and prices soaring, the Russian economy is facing pain unseen since the 1990s.

Western nations are also preparing for substantial military build-ups. Belgium, Italy, Poland, Romania, Norway, and Sweden have all pledged to increase defense spending. Germany has announced a major increase in its military budget, a historic shift in the country’s foreign policy that ends decades of reluctance on defense spending and will transform it into the world’s third-largest military spender.

Russia’s invasion has also led to the deployment of additional NATO forces to eastern Europe. The alliance is set to double its battlegroups in the region, which has already seen the arrival of over 20,000 NATO troops.

Russia has condemned the economic measures imposed on the country, which Mr. Putin has referred to as “akin to an act of war” and has expressed strong discontent with the strengthening of NATO’s posture. “The build-up of NATO forces on the ‘eastern flank’ is openly provocative”, said the Russian foreign ministry.

The invasion has only exacerbated many of President Putin’s long-held concerns, and embroiled Russia in a bloody conflict that has seen its military take more casualties than the U.S. endured throughout the entirety of its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Indeed, given public sentiment in Ukraine and the lethal aid provided by Western powers, it is likely this conflict will persist. Meanwhile, the Russian economy slides toward crisis and NATO forces mount along its border.

Commentators now frequently decry the invasion as a ‘miscalculation’, an epithet that provides a measure of comfort for Western audiences by assuring them this war would not have unfolded had President Putin understood its full consequences.

But, what if the backlash was foreseen? What if President Putin is motivated by something more than Western commentators understand? Does the West really understand what is driving this invasion?

“The Creation of a Vast, Continent-Spanning Russian-Eurasian State”

For much of its history, Russia’s suspension between Europe and central Asia has induced a sense of identity crisis. Its territory lies mostly in Asia, but its history of art, music, and literature are more closely associated with Europe.

Following the collapse of the Russian Empire in 1917, a group of Russian intellectuals called on the country to transcend its European fixation. Russia, they proposed, should dedicate itself to the creation of a vast, continent-spanning Russian-Eurasian state, independent of Europe’s influence, based on the legacy of Genghis Khan and the deep history of cultural exchange among people of Slavic, Turkic, Mongol, and other Asian origin.

This concept, known as Eurasianism, was suppressed by the Soviet Union. Indeed, according to early Eurasianist thinkers, communism itself was a destructive European import. Nonetheless, Eurasianism survived in the underground and reentered public discourse following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Over time, a new form of Eurasianism permeated Russia’s policy and military elite. A key moment in the ideology’s revival came with the publication of Aleksandr Dugin’s 600-page textbook titled The Foundations of Geopolitics: The Geopolitical Future of Russia.

Dugin, an eccentric philosopher and sociologist, was once a fringe figure in Russia. However, through the years, his influence has grown significantly. Indeed, Mr. Dugin has been referred to as ‘Putin’s Brain’, ‘Putin’s philosopher’ and even ‘Putin’s Rasputin’. He has served as an advisor to key political and military figures and–on the insistence of Mr. Putin–his textbook forms part of the curriculum for the Academy of General Staff of the Russian military. According to Dr. Jane Burbank, a recently retired professor of Russian history at New York University, “a revitalized theory of Eurasian empire informs Mr. Putin’s every move.”

Aleksandr Dugin, Neo-Eurasianism, and the “Fourth Political Theory”

Dugin’s neo-Eurasianism involves a bizarre fusion of various political and religious ideologies. According to Dugin, fascism, communism, and liberalism represent the leading political theories of recent history. Fascism collapsed with the fall of Nazi Germany. Communism collapsed with the fall of the Soviet Union. Now, liberalism is collapsing as the West enters a “nihilistic post-modern stage.”

Therefore, Dugin proposes a “Fourth Political Theory,” an alternative political model that challenges the “progress” of world history. According to Dugin, human beings’ self-awareness is rooted in the world. Because this root differs across cultures, a multipolar world order is required for humans to feel a sense of identity.

Thus, the mission of Russia, as a nation of unique culture and destiny, is to create a Eurasian power center that can challenge the unipolarity of U.S. global influence and restore the root of human self-awareness across Eurasia.

The Fourth Political Theory combines what Dugin identifies as the strongest elements of communism, fascism, ecologism, and traditionalism. In sum, his political model represents a totalitarian synthesis of unlimited state power, ‘blood and soil’ nationalism, and traditional religious hierarchy.

Indeed, according to James Heiser, author of The American Empire Should be Destroyed’: Alexander Dugin and the Perils of Immanentized Eschatology, Dugin considers the true meaning of Russia to be “marked by [a] ‘dialectical triad’ which combines ‘Third Rome–Third Reich–Third International’”. Among the aims of this messianic, imperial project is the destruction of Western liberalism and a fundamental reordering of the global political landscape.

“One of the Poles in the Modern World”

Whilst the full extent of Eurasianist ideology on Mr. Putin is far from clear, “he’s always had an intellectual affiliation with Eurasianist thinkers” says Hannah Thoburn, a Eurasia analyst at the Foreign Policy Initiative.

Indeed, Russia has been attempting to assert itself as a new geopolitical force for some time. It has been argued, for example, that the formation of the Eurasian Economic Union (E.A.E.U.) in 2015, a regional trade pact involving a constellation of post-Soviet states, is part of a broader effort to disrupt the U.S.-led world order.

“We suggest a powerful supranational association capable of becoming one of the poles in the modern world,” wrote Mr. Putin in 2011. Unsurprisingly, the E.A.E.U. was not well received by the United States. “Let’s make no mistake about it. We know what the goal is and we are trying to figure out effective ways to slow down or prevent it,” said then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2012.

Whilst President Putin discussed the formation of the E.A.E.U. in mostly economic terms, his comments have alluded to a set of deeper ideological motives closely aligned with Eurasianist thought. For example, in 2013, he described the union as a “project to preserve the identity of the people who inhabit the historic Eurasian space…Eurasian integration is a chance for the post-Soviet space to become an independent center for global development–not a peripherality to Europe or Asia”.

“Ukraine is the Big One”

Ukraine has always played a key role in Eurasianist ideology. In 1927, Nikolai Trubetzkoy, one of the ideology’s founding figures, argued that Belarus and Ukraine should unite with Russia around their shared orthodox faith. More recently, in the years following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Dugin wrote that total dominion over the north coast of the Black Sea was an “absolute imperative” of Russian geopolitics and that Ukrainian independence represented “a huge danger to all of Eurasia.” According to Dugin, Ukraine had to become “a purely administrative sector of the Russian centralized state.”

Currents of Eurasianist ethnonationalism appear central to the propaganda campaign surrounding Russia’s invasion. In a 5,000 word article published in 2021, entitled “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukranianians”, Mr. Putin reasserted his claim that Russians and Ukranians are “one people.”

For Putin, the invasion of Ukraine is part of a broader effort to reassert the unity of a divided Russian people. Indeed, according to Ivan Vejvoda, a senior fellow at the Institute of Human Sciences in Vienna, “Putin wants to consolidate the civilizational border of Russia, as he calls it, and he is doing that by invading a sovereign European country.”

“Ukraine is the big one” says Alexander Cooley, a political science professor at Barnard College. The success of the Eurasian Union “hinges on Ukraine’s participation and cooperation.”

Perhaps the clearest display of the deeper ideological underpinnings of Putin’s war effort comes from a news article accidentally published by multiple state-run Russian media outlets just three days into the invasion. Commentators have explained that the article’s publication at exactly 08:00 suggests it was a pre-written piece intended to celebrate a swift Russian victory. However, Ukraine did not fall within the first days of the invasion, and the article was deleted.

The article claims that Ukraine was a problem for Russia “for two key reasons…the issue of national security, that is, the creation of anti-Russia from Ukraine and an outpost for the West to put pressure on us, is only the second most important among them. The first would always be the complex of a divided people, the complex of national humiliation – when the Russian house first lost part of its foundation (Kiev), and then was forced to come to terms with the existence of two states, not one, but two peoples.”

The article concludes, envisaging the collapse of the Kiev government, “Ukraine has returned to Russia…it will be reorganized, re-established and returned to its natural state as part of the Russian world.”

Conclusions

Across the West, Putin’s invasion has been met with disbelief. The Russian army has already sustained thousands of casualties. The economy is collapsing and NATO forces mount on its border. For many, Russia’s actions seem incomprehensible, even absurd. The commentariat reassure Western audiences that the attack was a ‘miscalculation’, an error of judgment that failed to account for Western sanctions or Ukrainian resolve.

But, there is another possibility. What if Putin expected this response? What if, despite knowing its full cost, he considered his invasion justified? What if his attack on Ukraine is motivated by a deeper ideological desire to reshape the world order and establish Russia as a new global power center, regardless of the cost?

Since the invasion, there have been many calls, including from Kiev, for Western military intervention. The unfolding humanitarian crisis is a catastrophe for Europe, but the threat of a major military confrontation between nuclear powers provides powerful cause for restraint.

Nonetheless, NATO must be prepared to hold its ground and cannot ignore the threat of an ideologically-driven, imperial project wreaking havoc on its border. Indeed, as Mr. Dugin has said, “the Russian Renaissance can only stop by Kiev.”

Restoring Ukrainian sovereignty and challenging Russia’s expansionist agenda will require engagement and negotiation on the military, political, economic, and, perhaps most importantly, ideological level. In order to end the war, the West must understand what is really driving this invasion. Indeed, its aims may be far more ambitious than many realize.

 

Oliver Alexander Crisp, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

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