February 2020

 by Vasileia Kioutsouki

New ISIL Leader Officially Named and Confirmed

It was recently officially confirmed by two intelligence services that Amir Mohammed Abdul Rahman al-Mawli al-Salbi is the new head of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Prior to the reveal of his identity, Al-Salbi was known as Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurashi: a name implying that he is of Qurayshi descent and thus legitimizes his role as a new ‘caliph’.

Early Years and ISIL Roots

Al-Salbi — alias Hajji ‘Abdallah — was born in the small northwestern Iraqi city Tal Afar; a city once under Al-Qaeda control from 2004 to 2006 and a subsequent strategic base for the Islamic State. He graduated with a degree in Sharia law from the University of Mosul, was a religious scholar in al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) and is believed to be a founding member of ISIL.

Like most of the Islamic State’s leading fighters, he is a former officer who had served under Saddam Hussein and played a prominent role in the fight against the United States and its allies. In 2004, he was captured by American troops for associations with al-Qaeda and placed in Camp Bucca detention center where he met al-Baghdadi.

It was only natural that al-Baghdadi took advantage of his period of detention to indoctrinate as many inmates as possible and set up a common vision, namely the establishment of an Islamic Caliphate. Within Camp Bucca, Baghdadi created a network of hardline fighters that he destined for positions of leadership in the Islamic State.

The new ‘caliph’, nicknamed as the ‘Professor’, is one of those fighters connected with Baghdadi and adopted his unwavering commitment to the Islamic State. He appears to have led many of their international operations and he is considered to have played a decisive role in the enslavement of thousands of Yazidi women and children, as well as the murder of an equal number of Yazidi men in Iraq, started in 2014.

Current Situation

Although the succession of Baghdadi by al-Salbi was only recently confirmed, he is likely to have taken over the day-to-day operations of the terrorist organisation well before the former’s death. Being wounded and suffering from a chronic illness, al-Baghdadi had already designated a successor since last August. During that time, the Rewards for Justice Program (RFJ) of the US Department of State announced a reward up to $5 million for information regarding al-Salbi, placing him on the list with the most wanted terrorists. There is no doubt that he will be an efficient leader that will attempt to reinvigorate the Islamic State. What remains to be seen is whether he will be as inspiring as his predecessor who had been admittedly very successful in recruiting fighters from all around the world and inciting them to fight for a common cause.

Recent discussions around its new leader indicate that the Islamic State is indeed regenerating and confirms fears about a possible re-emergence. The situation both in Iraq and Syria has created a favourable environment for ISIL to rebuild its strengths and organise its operations. This is certainly not a simple task without any territory under their control, however, regional instability has disrupted security and reduced the effectiveness of the security services.

If tensions and conflict are not addressed soon, intelligence gathering will be extremely challenging, and attempts to prevent the Islamic State from breaking their imprisoned fighters out and retaking territory will be even less likely to be successful. Consequently, prisons where IS fighters are held should be properly guarded, in order to avoid a mass break out, and a particular attention must be focused on monitoring desert regions around the Iraq-Syria border, and other areas which are beyond the control of the central government.

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Trump on Afghanistan
 by Ahmad Mohibi

Afghan Promises and a Peace Plan in Trump’s State of the Union Address

At the State of the Union, President Trump endorsed peace talks with the Taliban and promised that he continues to work to “end America’s wars in the Middle East” and bring troops home. He stated:

“In Afghanistan, the determination and valor of our warfighters has allowed us to make tremendous progress, and peace talks are underway. I am not looking to kill hundreds of thousands of people in Afghanistan, many of them innocent. It is also not our function to serve other nations as a law enforcement agency. These are warfighters, the best in the world, and they either want to fight to win or not fight at all. We are working to finally end America’s longest war and bring our troops back home!”

The US-Taliban talks

Mark Esper, the United States Defense Secretary, stated intent to reduce the number of troops to 8,600 from 14,000 with or without a deal with the Taliban. This aligns with statements made this past Monday by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that the Taliban must first give “demonstrable evidence of their will and capacity to reduce violence” for peace talks to progress.

 In the past week, US Special Envoy for Peace and Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad completed talks in Doha, Qatar where he met with the Taliban political office and later with the Afghan political community in Afghanistan. There have been numerous talks behind closed doors and open discussions with the Taliban on issues of reduction of violence, US troop withdrawal, and a possible interim government to end the Afghan conflict. Nonetheless, nothing is promising, and Afghanistan is an unpredictable country with so many elements in flux.

A US deal with the Taliban will be condition-based primarily anchored on the US troop withdrawal, the Taliban commitment to cut ties with al-Qaeda and the renunciation of Afghan soil as a place to plan  attacks against the United States and its allies.

The Afghan dilemma

The prolonged ethnic conflict in Afghanistan is at the root of the political rift in Afghanistan. A race for power and supremacy supplanted any rational opportunities for compromise in the inner workings of the Afghan political community. Ethnonationalism is on the rise thus escalating tensions between tribes and ethnicities and  — most importantly — among the youth of Afghanistan. A September 2019 presidential election stirred deeper chaos and left its people uncertain over the future of their country. 

The Taliban game of politics

Taliban has been rather successful in the advancement of their interests of power and recognition.  A regime that was established in the 1990s and toppled by the US in 2001 has now emerged with a mission to build a global reputation and controls a significant portion of Afghan territory, where they set up an Islamic Emirate or similar form of government. Establishment of such a political system nationwide is their strategic objective and a peace deal — or no deal — will not change that.

Taliban have said recently that they agreed to a short-term ceasefire, but left any questions about a permanent ceasefire unanswered until an agreement with the US on troop withdrawal is reached. They hesitate to hold any talks with the Afghan government as they believe the Afghan government is weak and is unready to negotiate and respond to Taliban demands. The Afghan government simply wants the Taliban to surrender and end the violence. This has become a deal-breaker for intra-Afghan dialogue. 

 Talks between the US and the Taliban are only the first step of a long process. Intra-Afghan dialogue — where the Taliban meet with Afghan officials — is the next step. In this phase, both sides of the conflict will discuss key barriers, demands, amendments to the constitution to increase the likelihood of success in reaching sustainable peace in Afghanistan.

 Promising future?

Convincing the Afghan political community to negotiate with the Taliban is the hardest part of achieving Afghan peace. Throughout the nine rounds of peace talks, the Taliban presented themselves professionally with one voice and one strategy while the Afghan representatives seem to lack a clear vision with a government that appears unsupportive of their efforts. The Afghan government has not finalized the list of peace talk participants yet.

 Here are three possible scenarios for Afghanistan

  1.     Presidential election: A new government should be established through a second round of elections between the two front-runners given that candidates failed to reach 52 percent of the vote. The winner with 52 percent of the vote would become the president of Afghanistan and will have to negotiate with the Taliban in the next 5 years.
  2.     Interim government: It is a reasonable option that an interim government should be formed until a stable Afghanistan can create a new government. The last elections were a complete failure due to security challenges, electoral fraud, technical difficulties and a low voter turnout (approximately 1.5 million voted in a country of 35 million citizens), thus an interim government offers a path forward for now.

  3.      The continuation of the current regime: It is even more likely that the current regime retains power in a situation where a second round of elections are indecisive and the Afghan political community cannot compromise on an interim government.

Afghanistan’s future is unpredictable with so many moving parts though Afghans are hopeful that peace is possible. Trump’s State of the Union speech acted as yet another reminder that the situation in the country continues to perplex domestic and international political actors as they continually seek opportunities to end the decades of violence.

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 by Rise to Peace

What In The World Is Coronavirus? A Short Primer

Editor’s Note: One does not typically expect to see an article related to public health or infectious disease on Rise to Peace. After all, we are an organization focused on counter-terrorism and counter-extremism efforts. Nevertheless, an opportunity to educate our followers about Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) arose and organization leadership thought such a measured analysis should be shared. We live in a globalized world and one of the aspects that accompany such a world system is the spread of viruses and subsequent public health issues. Education is the best antidote against fear and paranoia. Reminders such as these present opportunities for all of us to ‘get back to basics’ in daily preventative measures not only to keep ourselves healthy, but our elderly, young, chronically ill and immune-compromised neighbours. Learn about the current virus all over the headlines right now and use the advice to prevent other common viral infections. Thanks to Emirhan Darcan Ph.D for this timely piece!

Most viruses that cause infectious diseases in humans come from animals. Viruses usually have a reservoir animal that is not affected by the virus and several animals that transmit it. Influenza and similar viruses that infect the respiratory tract usually originate from birds (where they mutate) and then spread to humans via pigs or other animals. Where humans and animals live together in cramped spaces, as in China, a virus variant can develop which jumps over to humans and then makes the leap from person to person.

The new pathogen is called 2019-nCoV and infects the respiratory tract. It was discovered at the end of 2019 in Wuhan, China. In the worst case, an infection can lead to pneumonia. Initial accompanying symptoms are rhinitis and fever. The pathogens causing the diseases Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) belong to the same family. As of February 3, there were more than 20,000 confirmed cases in more than two dozen countries. 426 deaths have been reported.

How the infection spreads from person to person is not known for sure. The droplet infection (sneezing, coughing) would be the most contagious way of transmission. As you would from the flu: wash your hands often and keep a fair distance from those who are symptomatic. Face masks do not provide reliable protection against viral disease, but they do prevent you from repeatedly touching your face. This is more likely to protect others.

The biggest difference between the current CoV disease and SARS lies in the timing: Chinese New Year is the time when Chinese people want to see their families and therefore travel is increasing rapidly across the country. This will make it difficult to curb the spread of the 2019 nCoV though China has cancelled some public celebrations and extended the holiday period.

The lethality of the virus depends not only on the pathogen, but also on the circumstances. The 2019-nCoV is thought to have a lethality rate of about 2 percent. This would be lower than in the SARS outbreak of 2002/03 with a death rate of 9 to 16 percent of all infected persons. MERS is less infectious but kills more infected people: 30 to 40 percent. The most lethal virus so far is believed to be the Zaire type of the Ebola virus, which killed up to 90 percent of the infected. The Marburg and Lassa type of Ebola, on the other hand, had a lethality rate of between 20 and 25 percent. Less than 0.1 percent of those infected from the flu, 2.5 percent are suspected to have died from the Spanish flu of 1918/1919. In the past, 3 to 6 percent died from rubella and 0.1 to 0.2 percent from measles.

The reproduction rate R0 indicates approximately how many people a single virus carrier can infect. However, there are many uncertainties, for example, that the number of known cases does not correspond to the actual number of cases, or that infected people without symptoms could spread the virus further. The health status of a population also has an influence. For the current Corona-virus, estimates vary from 1.4 to 2.2 or 3.3 to 5.47. A R0 is greater than 1 means that the virus is spreading. The wave of influenza has a R0 of 1 to 2, with an estimate of 3 for SARS, and the highest values for the risk of infection are found in the literature for measles (12-18) and whooping cough (12-17).

China has prohibited travel and shutdown cities. The World Health Organization (WHO) has intervened. Despite the low mortality rate, the disease is more serious than influenza, and there are more hospital admissions. Hospitalization is expensive and absenteeism from work is expensive. Health systems could quickly reach their limits if the disease continues to spread. It is therefore appropriate for health authorities to react differently than in the case of an influenza epidemic. This is also because the virus is new and no one is yet immune to it.

The rapid global response to the discovery of the new virus is a good sign. Even if the dynamics of infection and mortality do not seem to reach record levels, it is important to react quickly, otherwise, a pandemic, i.e. a global epidemic, may still be imminent. China has learned from SARS and so have health authorities worldwide. Today, when the origin of a virus can be traced, no country can afford to conceal it because the number of infections rose rapidly. A virus can also mutate at any time.

It is feared since the danger of a pandemic has been better understood. Not much can be done against unknown viruses and the therapy of a patient is limited to nursing care. The condition for a pandemic is the ability of a pathogen to jump quickly from person to person. Most dangerous are pathogens that have a high lethality, but at the same time, a long incubation period and the ability to infect other people even without symptoms. It is therefore difficult to take epidemiological measures against them.

— Emirhan Darcan Ph.D

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