Terrorism in the Philippines: Can Increased Maritime Security Help Stop the Flow of Foreign Fighters?

While the thought of ISIS typically brings to mind violence in Iraq and Syria, their pervasive ideology, coupled with the ability to reach a broad audience, creates a large swath of global sympathizers. These sympathizers may range from an individual who has yet to be radicalized but resonates with their message, to full-blown sleeper cells. Southeast Asia has received attention in the past year due to what appears to be a rise of ISIS-supporting rebels. In fact, in 2016 ISIS chose a Filipino rebel as its emir in Southeast Asia.

ISIS gaining grip in Philippines after being driven out of the Middle East, photo by Paul Toothey

According to Pew Research Center, Indonesia has the largest Muslim population in the world. While they have escaped the majority of the protracted violence that has plagued the Middle East, Voice of America reports that Indonesia is known to have sleeper cells of ISIS sympathizers.

Indonesia and the Philippines, large islands in close proximity to one another, are Southeast Asia’s most populous countries. In 2017, the Philippines experienced a five-month war fought by ISIS inspired rebels. Officials have confirmed that Indonesian sympathizers traveled to the Philippines to support the battle that killed 1,127 people. Bibhu Routray, a visiting security and counter-terrorism professor from Murdoch University asserts that 40-50 foreign rebels in Marawi had traveled from Indonesia in response to the call from ISIS. Although this particular battle has ended, the overall terrorist threat remains.

The Guardian (31 March 2016) featured a story headlined Brighton Boys: How four friends fell into Jihad.

Now, the Philippines and Indonesia are coming together to halt ISIS sympathizers from crossing the sea that separates the two countries. While the two countries did not explicitly state how they will control the flow of terrorists into the Philippines, Voice of America reports that analysts have pointed to the vulnerability that stems from a lack of patrols in the Celebes Sea.

Historically, porous borders have been exploited by terrorists. The Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan have allowed terrorists to travel between countries and seek safe havens due to the challenges of patrolling the difficult terrain. The Celebes Sea is a 285,000 square-kilometer body of water which has been described as a “serious maritime black spot” by Jamestown Foundation.

ISIS’s ability to mobilize foreign fighters has contributed to its power and reach. According to the Soufan Group, many fighters who join ISIS in the Middle East come from Europe – particularly from France – [1] Not only do foreign fighters provide ISIS with a mass of people willing to go to battle, but an equal threat is that these fighters often return home with radical ideas. Cooperation between Indonesia and the Philippines to enhance maritime security may prove to be a positive step in stemming the flow of fighters to the Philippines, but also in preemptively stopping the return of hardened militants, thereby contributing to the denial of ISIS’s desired global expansion.

The island geography of these countries provides them with a unique border unlike the physical terrain borders of other countries dealing with foreign fighters. A limited number of points of entry exist on an island. With well thought out security protocols and excellent cooperation, Indonesia and the Philippines could use their island geography to their advantage.

ISIS flag captured by the Philippines Armed Forces, June 1, 2017

 

[1] http://soufangroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/TSG_ForeignFightersUpdate3.pdf

GWOT Panel: Reflections from Team Member Lindsay Stanek

On Wednesday, December 6, I had the honor of attending The Global War on Terrorism: Myths, Realities & Solutions seminar at The George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs. The seminar was hosted by Rise to Peace, a non-profit organization that works to promote peace and counter extremist ideology around the globe. The panel was composed of the former chairman of the U.S. National Intelligence Council, Dr. Christopher Kojm, the founder of Rise to Peace, Ahmad Shah Mohibi as well as Dr. Gawdat Bahgat of the National Defense University and Ambassador John W. Limbert.

Lindsay Stanek is a M.A. candidate at The George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs

Early on in the discussion, Dr. Gawdat Bahgat contended that the roots of terrorism stem from perceived injustice. He argued, “When people feel that they have been unfairly treated, they often try to do something about it. Social media makes it much easier for individuals to communicate perceived injustice.”

Panelists discussed a wide range of topics from the roots of Al-Qaeda to the concentration of power under President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt, to the growing need for greater government transparency. Mr. Mohibi spoke of the corruption in the Afghan government and the rise of ISIS in the North of Afghanistan.Mr. Mohibi explained that there are presently twenty-six insurgency groups operating in the region and the unstable environment enables these terrorist groups to both target and exploit vulnerable children and defenseless families.

The discussion then moved to Dr. Kojm sharing his insight on what prompted the rise and proliferation of ISIS. Dr. Kojm explained how the U.S. intervention in Iraq put the Shia majority in power after countless Shia’s had been repressed under Saddam Hussein. Dr. Kojm shared, “The Sunni community felt marginalized and felt its existence was in question… the government in Iraq which was deeply distrustful of the Sunni community, they undid much of the political work of the surge…” Dr. Kojm then went on to speak of the corruption in the Iraqi government and lack of popular support for the government in the Sunni community. He claimed that an open door for ISIS was created not only from the political and social destabilization of Iraq, but also from perceived injustice and existential danger in the Sunni community.

Ambassador John W. Limbert then spoke of the Iranian threat and argued that it has been vastly overblown. He asserted that the Islamic Republic is a threat to its own people but much less of a threat to the United States. Ambassador Limbert suggested that what many countries in the Middle East lack is a working model of governance. He argued, “Almost all of them are multi-ethnic, multi-religious places…even the Emirates, even Kuwait…They need something that manages diversity…if not, you have grievances.”

Throughout the panel, I noticed how the speakers continuously discussed weak states and perceived injustices. I believe it is vital to continue to engage in discussions and educational panels that seek to sort through the complexities of various regions and identify the grievances that enable terrorists to capitalize on marginalized communities. In “Depictions of Children and Youth in the Islamic State’s Martyrdom Propaganda”, Mia Bloom, John Horgan and Charlie Winter write, “From January 1, 2015, to January 31, 2016, eighty-nine children and youth were eulogized in Islamic State propaganda. Fifty-one percent were alleged to have died in Iraq, while 36 percent died in Syria.”[1]

These numbers are staggering and reveal the disturbing fact that extremist organizations are recruiting children, the world’s most vulnerable, at ever-increasing rates. Children are not only being trained militarily but also ideologically, with violence being one of the primary tools of indoctrination.

ISIS has been known to visit orphanages and refugee camps to recruit[2] as well as impoverished villages and neighborhoods. “The poorer neighborhoods of Ankara, Turkey, are reportedly a source of child recruits. One such neighborhood, Hacibayram, has become a recruitment hub for ISIS.”[3] If we truly seek to counter the false narrative propagated by terrorists, it is vital to begin examining the grievances that aid in recruitment. Moreover, we must realize that education is vital in the fight against extremism. In the words of Malala Yousafzei, “Let us pick up our books and our pens…They are our most powerful weapons. One child, one teacher, one book and one pen can change the world.”

Lindsay Stanek, first from the left with the Team of Rise to Peace

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[1] Mia Bloom, John Horgan, Charlie Winter, “Depictions of Children and Youth in the Islamic State’s Martyrdom Propaganda,” CTC Sentinel 9, no. 2 (2016).

[2]Ibid., 652.

[3] J.M. Berger and Jessica Stern, ISIS: The State of Terror (New York: HarperCollins Publishers, 2015), 212.